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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Dan Hooker won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1355

Elo1484

Hatsu HiokivsDan HookerUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt · Saturday, May 9, 2015Adelaide, South Australia, Australia

Official fight result

Dan Hooker won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:13

Style matchupHatsu Hioki: WrestlervsDan Hooker: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Dan Hooker wins(54.7%)

Actual result: Dan Hooker wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dan Hooker at +245 American odds

+$245 profit

$345 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Hatsu Hioki has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Dan Hooker has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Dan Hooker (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Hatsu Hioki

Red Corner

Dan Hooker

Blue Corner

-290

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+245

(29%)

1355

Elo

1484

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'11"

Height

6'0"

185.42 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Hatsu Hioki

oldest →

vs Ricardo Lamas · Jun 12

vs Clay Guida · Jan 13

vs Darren Elkins · Aug 13

vs Ivan Menjivar · Mar 14

SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Jun 14

latest

Dan HookerL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Claudio Puelles · Nov 22

vs Jalin Turner · Jul 23

vs Mateusz Gamrot · Aug 24

SUBvs Arman Tsarukyan · Nov 25

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Jan 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Hatsu HiokiMetricDan Hooker

2.42

Strikes / min

4.82

2.12

Strikes absorbed / min

4.94

65%

Strike defense

49%

2.55

TDs / 15 min

0.68

54%

Takedown defense

77%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.30evenly matched on net striking-0.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Hatsu HiokiDan Hooker

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Hatsu Hioki(8 fights)Dan Hooker(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -129.4|Blue +129.4

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +84.0|Blue -84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Hatsu HiokiTargetDan Hooker

By target zone

33% acc · 72%

Head

37% acc · 86%

38% acc · 25%

Body

25% acc · 5%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

25% acc · 10%

By position

35% acc · 100%

Distance

31% acc · 81%

Clinch

67% acc · 10%

Ground

67% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Hatsu Hioki rounds

even

Dan Hooker rounds

Round 1Hatsu Hioki edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control0:58

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control1:02

Knockdowns0

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 92

Sig Strikes

21 / 61

34.5%

Sig Str %

33%

38 / 98

Total Strikes

34 / 74

2 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

41.5%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:00

Ctrl Time

0:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Dan Hooker	7 / 25	15 / 33	0 / 0
1	Hatsu Hioki	15 / 40	16 / 41	1 / 2
2	Dan Hooker	14 / 36	19 / 41	0 / 0
2	Hatsu Hioki	17 / 52	22 / 57	1 / 3

Hatsu Hioki

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8

Dan Hooker

StanceSwitch

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights24