Featherweight

3 Rounds

Charles Oliveira won · SUB R2

Elo1355

Elo1521

Hatsu HiokivsCharles OliveiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Te Huna vs Marquardt · Saturday, June 28, 2014Auckland, New Zealand

Official fight result

Charles Oliveira won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:32

Style matchupHatsu Hioki: WrestlervsCharles Oliveira: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Hatsu Hioki wins(62.2%)

Actual result: Charles Oliveira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Hatsu Hioki at +185 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Hatsu Hioki has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Hatsu Hioki

Red Corner

Charles Oliveira

Blue Corner

+185

(35%)

Vegas Odds

-200

(67%)

1355

Elo

1521

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'10"

185.42 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Hatsu Hioki

oldest →

vs Ricardo Lamas · Jun 12

vs Clay Guida · Jan 13

vs Darren Elkins · Aug 13

vs Ivan Menjivar · Mar 14

KOvs Dan Hooker · May 15

latest

Charles OliveiraW2 streak

oldest →

vs Arman Tsarukyan · Apr 24

vs Michael Chandler · Nov 24

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 25

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Oct 25

vs Max Holloway · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Hatsu HiokiMetricCharles Oliveira

2.42

Strikes / min

3.23

2.12

Strikes absorbed / min

3.05

65%

Strike defense

48%

2.55

TDs / 15 min

2.29

54%

Takedown defense

54%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

2.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.30evenly matched on net striking+0.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Hatsu HiokiCharles Oliveira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Hatsu Hioki(8 fights)Charles Oliveira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -166.6|Blue +166.6

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Hatsu HiokiTargetCharles Oliveira

By target zone

33% acc · 64%

Head

43% acc · 42%

67% acc · 36%

Body

91% acc · 42%

Leg

100% acc · 17%

By position

35% acc · 55%

Distance

21% acc · 13%

67% acc · 18%

Clinch

82% acc · 58%

43% acc · 27%

Ground

100% acc · 29%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Hatsu Hioki rounds

even

Charles Oliveira rounds

Round 1Charles Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control2:52

10Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:48Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns2

Control3:06

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:35Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 27

Sig Strikes

24 / 38

40.5%

Sig Str %

63%

31 / 51

Total Strikes

33 / 52

3 / 4

TDs

3 / 5

75%

TD %

58%

Sub Att

Rev

5:58

Ctrl Time

2:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Charles Oliveira	10 / 15	15 / 21	2 / 3	1
1	Hatsu Hioki	7 / 13	19 / 27	1 / 2	0
2	Charles Oliveira	14 / 23	18 / 31	1 / 2	1
2	Hatsu Hioki	4 / 14	12 / 24	2 / 2	0

Hatsu Hioki

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8

Charles Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights36