Featherweight

3 Rounds

Hatsu Hioki won · U-DEC R3

Elo1355

Elo1352

Hatsu HiokivsBart PalaszewskiUFC Prediction Result

UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson · Saturday, February 25, 2012Saitama, Japan

Official fight result

Hatsu Hioki won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Hatsu Hioki wins(78.6%)

Actual result: Hatsu Hioki wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Hatsu Hioki at -185 American odds

+$54 profit

$154 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Hatsu Hioki

Red Corner

Bart Palaszewski

Blue Corner

-185

(65%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1355

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'9"

185.42 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Hatsu HiokiL2 streak

oldest →

vs Clay Guida · Jan 13

vs Darren Elkins · Aug 13

vs Ivan Menjivar · Mar 14

SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Jun 14

KOvs Dan Hooker · May 15

latest

Bart PalaszewskiL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tyson Griffin · Oct 11

vs Diego Nunes · Oct 12

SUBvs Cole Miller · Apr 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Hatsu HiokiMetricBart Palaszewski

2.42

Strikes / min

2.67

2.12

Strikes absorbed / min

3.97

65%

Strike defense

57%

2.55

TDs / 15 min

0.65

54%

Takedown defense

53%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.30Δ 1.60 — meaningful gap-1.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Hatsu HiokiBart Palaszewski

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Hatsu Hioki(8 fights)Bart Palaszewski(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +2.6|Blue -2.6

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Hatsu HiokiTargetBart Palaszewski

By target zone

56% acc · 72%

Head

22% acc · 38%

71% acc · 22%

Body

60% acc · 23%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

43% acc · 38%

By position

46% acc · 46%

Distance

32% acc · 96%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

83% acc · 51%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Hatsu Hioki rounds

even

Bart Palaszewski rounds

Round 1Hatsu Hioki edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns1

Control3:28

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:09

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Hatsu Hioki edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control4:44

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

67 / 111

Sig Strikes

26 / 78

65.7%

Sig Str %

29%

175 / 221

Total Strikes

31 / 84

2 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

33.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

8:21

Ctrl Time

0:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Bart Palaszewski	4 / 16	5 / 17	0 / 0	1
1	Hatsu Hioki	33 / 47	78 / 92	1 / 2	1
2	Bart Palaszewski	20 / 54	20 / 54	0 / 0	0
2	Hatsu Hioki	18 / 46	18 / 46	0 / 1	0
3	Bart Palaszewski	2 / 8	6 / 13	0 / 0	0
3	Hatsu Hioki	16 / 18	79 / 83	1 / 2	1

Hatsu Hioki

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8

Bart Palaszewski

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4