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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Kaue Fernandes won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1460

Elo1531

Harry HardwickvsKaue FernandesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · Saturday, September 6, 2025Paris, Ile-de-France, France

Official fight result

Kaue Fernandes won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:21

Style matchupHarry Hardwick: Pressure fightervsKaue Fernandes: Elusive striker

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: Kaue Fernandes wins(51.2%)

Actual result: Kaue Fernandes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kaue Fernandes at +275 American odds

+$275 profit

$375 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kaue Fernandes is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Harry Hardwick has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Kaue Fernandes has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Kaue Fernandes has 76pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Harry Hardwick (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Harry Hardwick

Red Corner

Kaue Fernandes

Blue Corner

+176

(36%)

Vegas Odds

+275

(27%)

1460

Elo

1531

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'9"

180.34 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Harry Hardwick

oldest →

KOvs Marwan Rahiki · Mar 26

latest

Kaue FernandesW2 streak

oldest →

vs Marc Diakiese · Nov 23

KOvs Mohammad Yahya · Aug 24

vs Guram Kutateladze · Mar 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Harry HardwickMetricKaue Fernandes

5.47

Strikes / min

4.28

8.54

Strikes absorbed / min

1.42

44%

Strike defense

62%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.18

Takedown defense

76%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-3.07Δ 5.93 — meaningful gap+2.86

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Harry HardwickKaue Fernandes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Harry Hardwick(2 fights)Kaue Fernandes(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -71.2|Blue +71.2

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +49.6|Blue -49.6

Grappler Score

Red +49.6|Blue -49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Harry HardwickTargetKaue Fernandes

By target zone

33% acc · 75%

Head

46% acc · 46%

0% acc

Body

75% acc · 13%

100% acc · 25%

Leg

83% acc · 42%

By position

35% acc · 100%

Distance

62% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Harry Hardwick rounds

even

Kaue Fernandes rounds

Round 1Kaue Fernandes edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 23

Sig Strikes

24 / 40

34%

Sig Str %

60%

8 / 23

Total Strikes

24 / 40

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kaue Fernandes	24 / 40	24 / 40	0 / 0	0
1	Harry Hardwick	8 / 23	8 / 23	0 / 0	0

Harry Hardwick

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights2

Kaue Fernandes

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights4