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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Mohammed Usman won · U-DEC R3

Elo1514

Elo1506

Hamdy AbdelwahabvsMohammed UsmanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · Saturday, June 21, 2025Baku, Azerbaijan

Official fight result

Mohammed Usman won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupHamdy Abdelwahab: WrestlervsMohammed Usman: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Hamdy Abdelwahab wins(62.9%)

Actual result: Mohammed Usman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Hamdy Abdelwahab at -168 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Hamdy Abdelwahab has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Hamdy Abdelwahab (53.5%).
Mohammed Usman has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Hamdy Abdelwahab

Red Corner

Mohammed Usman

Blue Corner

-168

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+142

(41%)

1514

Elo

1506

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'2"

182.88 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Hamdy AbdelwahabW2 streak

oldest →

vs Jamal Pogues · Feb 25

vs Chris Barnett · Oct 25

latest

Mohammed UsmanL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Zac Pauga · Aug 22

vs Junior Tafa · Apr 23

vs Jake Collier · Sep 23

vs Mick Parkin · Mar 24

vs Thomas Petersen · Jul 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Hamdy AbdelwahabMetricMohammed Usman

4.27

Strikes / min

3.85

3.67

Strikes absorbed / min

4.27

51%

Strike defense

51%

3.25

TDs / 15 min

0.56

100%

Takedown defense

66%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.60Δ 1.02 — meaningful gap-0.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Hamdy AbdelwahabMohammed Usman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Hamdy Abdelwahab(3 fights)Mohammed Usman(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +8.2|Blue -8.2

Recent Form

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -196.0|Blue +196.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Hamdy AbdelwahabTargetMohammed Usman

By target zone

35% acc · 62%

Head

36% acc · 51%

77% acc · 18%

Body

76% acc · 48%

85% acc · 20%

Leg

50% acc · 1%

By position

45% acc · 100%

Distance

48% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Hamdy Abdelwahab rounds

even

Mohammed Usman rounds

Round 1Hamdy Abdelwahab edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Mohammed Usman edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:02

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Mohammed Usman edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

48Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

55 / 123

Sig Strikes

86 / 179

45.7%

Sig Str %

44%

55 / 124

Total Strikes

86 / 179

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 4

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Mohammed Usman	9 / 46	9 / 46	0 / 0
1	Hamdy Abdelwahab	16 / 32	16 / 32	0 / 0
2	Mohammed Usman	29 / 54	29 / 54	0 / 1
2	Hamdy Abdelwahab	21 / 39	21 / 40	0 / 1
3	Mohammed Usman	48 / 79	48 / 79	0 / 3
3	Hamdy Abdelwahab	18 / 52	18 / 52	0 / 0

Hamdy Abdelwahab

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights3

Mohammed Usman

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights6