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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Hamdy Abdelwahab won · S-DEC R3

Elo1514

Elo1496

Hamdy AbdelwahabvsJamal PoguesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · Saturday, February 1, 2025Riyadh, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

Official fight result

Hamdy Abdelwahab won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupHamdy Abdelwahab: WrestlervsJamal Pogues: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Hamdy Abdelwahab wins(50.1%)

Actual result: Hamdy Abdelwahab wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Hamdy Abdelwahab at -148 American odds

+$68 profit

$168 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Hamdy Abdelwahab has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Hamdy Abdelwahab (53.5%).
Jamal Pogues has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Hamdy Abdelwahab

Red Corner

Jamal Pogues

Blue Corner

-148

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+126

(44%)

1514

Elo

1496

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'3"

182.88 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Hamdy Abdelwahab

oldest →

vs Mohammed Usman · Jun 25

vs Chris Barnett · Oct 25

latest

Jamal Pogues

oldest →

vs Josh Parisian · Feb 23

vs Mick Parkin · Jul 23

vs Thomas Petersen · Feb 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Hamdy AbdelwahabMetricJamal Pogues

4.27

Strikes / min

3.57

3.67

Strikes absorbed / min

3.97

51%

Strike defense

49%

3.25

TDs / 15 min

2.00

100%

Takedown defense

70%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.60evenly matched on net striking-0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Hamdy AbdelwahabJamal Pogues

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Hamdy Abdelwahab(3 fights)Jamal Pogues(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +18.6|Blue -18.6

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +49.6|Blue -49.6

Grappler Score

Red +49.6|Blue -49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Hamdy AbdelwahabTargetJamal Pogues

By target zone

38% acc · 57%

Head

46% acc · 62%

75% acc · 7%

Body

89% acc · 36%

Leg

90% acc · 38%

By position

49% acc · 91%

Distance

56% acc · 99%

Clinch

100% acc · 1%

67% acc · 9%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Hamdy Abdelwahab rounds

even

Jamal Pogues rounds

Round 1Jamal Pogues edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control0:57

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jamal Pogues edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Jamal Pogues edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

44 / 87

Sig Strikes

69 / 123

49.3%

Sig Str %

56.3%

52 / 103

Total Strikes

69 / 123

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 1

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:57

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jamal Pogues	22 / 40	22 / 40	0 / 1
1	Hamdy Abdelwahab	11 / 23	19 / 39	1 / 1
2	Jamal Pogues	22 / 44	22 / 44	0 / 0
2	Hamdy Abdelwahab	12 / 25	12 / 25	0 / 0
3	Jamal Pogues	25 / 39	25 / 39	0 / 0
3	Hamdy Abdelwahab	21 / 39	21 / 39	0 / 0

Hamdy Abdelwahab

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights3

Jamal Pogues

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights4