Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Hamdy Abdelwahab won · U-DEC R3
Elo1514
Hamdy Abdelwahab
Elo1483
Chris Barnett

Hamdy AbdelwahabvsChris BarnettUFC Prediction Result

UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · Saturday, October 25, 2025Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Hamdy Abdelwahab won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupHamdy Abdelwahab: WrestlervsChris Barnett: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Hamdy Abdelwahab wins(86.8%)

Actual result: Hamdy Abdelwahab wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Hamdy Abdelwahab at -430 American odds

+$23 profit

$123 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Hamdy Abdelwahab has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Hamdy Abdelwahab has 65pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Hamdy Abdelwahab (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Hamdy Abdelwahab
Red Corner
VS
Chris Barnett
Blue Corner
-430
(81%)
Vegas Odds
+340
(23%)
1514
Elo
1483
33
Age
40
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
5'9"
182.88 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Hamdy Abdelwahab
oldest →
W
vs Jamal Pogues · Feb 25
L
vs Mohammed Usman · Jun 25
latest
Chris Barnett
oldest →
L
SUBvs Ben Rothwell · May 21
W
KOvs Gian Villante · Nov 21
L
vs Martin Buday · Apr 22
W
KOvs Jake Collier · Sep 22
L
KOvs Kennedy Nzechukwu · Oct 24
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Hamdy AbdelwahabMetricChris Barnett
4.27
Strikes / min
3.36
3.67
Strikes absorbed / min
6.55
51%
Strike defense
36%
3.25
TDs / 15 min
0.00
100%
Takedown defense
35%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.60Δ 3.79 — meaningful gap-3.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1487Strikes4.3 vs 3.4Takedowns3.3 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form-0.2 vs -0.7
Hamdy AbdelwahabChris Barnett

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701485150015151530← oldermost recent →
Hamdy Abdelwahab(3 fights)Chris Barnett(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +31.4|Blue -31.4
Recent Form
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Striker Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Layoff
Red -238.0|Blue +238.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Hamdy AbdelwahabTargetChris Barnett

By target zone

88
70% acc · 89%
Head
7
33% acc · 39%
8
80% acc · 8%
Body
4
100% acc · 22%
3
75% acc · 3%
Leg
7
70% acc · 39%

By position

16
64% acc · 16%
Distance
14
47% acc · 78%
13
93% acc · 13%
Clinch
3
75% acc · 17%
70
70% acc · 71%
Ground
1
100% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Hamdy Abdelwahab rounds
0
even
0
Chris Barnett rounds
Round 1Hamdy Abdelwahab edged it
Sig. strikes41
Takedowns4
Control3:03
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Hamdy Abdelwahab edged it
Sig. strikes27
Takedowns2
Control4:13
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Hamdy Abdelwahab edged it
Sig. strikes31
Takedowns3
Control3:32
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
99 / 139
Sig Strikes
18 / 35
71.3%
Sig Str %
54%
170 / 221
Total Strikes
28 / 46
9 / 14
TDs
0 / 0
63.7%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
10:48
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Chris Barnett8 / 168 / 170 / 00
1Hamdy Abdelwahab41 / 5847 / 644 / 60
2Chris Barnett5 / 79 / 110 / 00
2Hamdy Abdelwahab27 / 4460 / 872 / 40
3Chris Barnett5 / 1211 / 180 / 00
3Hamdy Abdelwahab31 / 3763 / 703 / 40

Hamdy Abdelwahab

StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights3

Chris Barnett

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights6