Featherweight

3 Rounds

Hakeem Dawodu won · S-DEC

Elo1473

Elo1496

Hakeem DawoduvsZubaira TukhugovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa · Saturday, September 26, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Hakeem Dawodu won

S-DEC

Style matchupHakeem Dawodu: StrikervsZubaira Tukhugov: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Hakeem Dawodu wins(55.4%)

Actual result: Hakeem Dawodu wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Hakeem Dawodu at +115 American odds

+$115 profit

$215 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Zubaira Tukhugov has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Hakeem Dawodu has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Hakeem Dawodu

Red Corner

Zubaira Tukhugov

Blue Corner

+115

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-143

(59%)

1473

Elo

1496

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'8"

185.42 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Hakeem DawoduL2 streak

oldest →

vs Julio Arce · Nov 19

vs Movsar Evloev · Jun 21

vs Michael Trizano · Feb 22

vs Julian Erosa · Sep 22

vs Cub Swanson · Aug 23

latest

Zubaira Tukhugov

oldest →

vs Phillipe Nover · Dec 15

vs Renato Moicano · May 16

KOvs Kevin Aguilar · Feb 20

vs Ricardo Ramos · Oct 21

vs Elves Brener · Feb 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Hakeem DawoduMetricZubaira Tukhugov

5.45

Strikes / min

3.17

3.37

Strikes absorbed / min

3.07

56%

Strike defense

63%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

2.13

65%

Takedown defense

100%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.08Δ 1.98 — meaningful gap+0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Hakeem DawoduZubaira Tukhugov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Hakeem Dawodu(10 fights)Zubaira Tukhugov(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -23.1|Blue +23.1

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +112.0|Blue -112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Hakeem DawoduTargetZubaira Tukhugov

By target zone

39% acc · 45%

Head

35% acc · 89%

67% acc · 20%

Body

80% acc · 11%

69% acc · 35%

Leg

By position

51% acc · 100%

Distance

37% acc · 97%

Clinch

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Hakeem Dawodu rounds

even

Zubaira Tukhugov rounds

Round 1Hakeem Dawodu edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Hakeem Dawodu edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:17Control

Round 3Hakeem Dawodu edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:46Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

69 / 136

Sig Strikes

35 / 93

49%

Sig Str %

37.3%

70 / 137

Total Strikes

40 / 98

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 7

—

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

2:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Zubaira Tukhugov	10 / 29	10 / 29	0 / 0
1	Hakeem Dawodu	13 / 41	13 / 41	0 / 0
2	Zubaira Tukhugov	21 / 54	26 / 59	1 / 2
2	Hakeem Dawodu	36 / 58	37 / 59	0 / 0
3	Zubaira Tukhugov	4 / 10	4 / 10	0 / 5
3	Hakeem Dawodu	20 / 37	20 / 37	0 / 0

Hakeem Dawodu

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights10

Zubaira Tukhugov

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights8