Featherweight

3 Rounds

Hakeem Dawodu won · S-DEC R3

Elo1473

Elo1377

Hakeem DawoduvsKyle BochniakUFC Prediction Result

UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega · Saturday, December 8, 2018Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Hakeem Dawodu won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupHakeem Dawodu: StrikervsKyle Bochniak: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Hakeem Dawodu wins(58.1%)

Actual result: Hakeem Dawodu wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Hakeem Dawodu at -200 American odds

+$50 profit

$150 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Hakeem Dawodu

Red Corner

Kyle Bochniak

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1473

Elo

1377

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'7"

185.42 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Hakeem DawoduL2 streak

oldest →

vs Zubaira Tukhugov · Sep 20

vs Movsar Evloev · Jun 21

vs Michael Trizano · Feb 22

vs Julian Erosa · Sep 22

vs Cub Swanson · Aug 23

latest

Kyle BochniakL2 streak

oldest →

vs Enrique Barzola · Aug 16

vs Jeremy Kennedy · Jul 17

vs Brandon Davis · Jan 18

vs Zabit Magomedsharipov · Apr 18

vs Sean Woodson · Oct 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Hakeem DawoduMetricKyle Bochniak

5.45

Strikes / min

2.63

3.37

Strikes absorbed / min

5.11

56%

Strike defense

58%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.14

65%

Takedown defense

62%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.08Δ 4.56 — meaningful gap-2.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Hakeem DawoduKyle Bochniak

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Hakeem Dawodu(10 fights)Kyle Bochniak(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +96.1|Blue -96.1

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -1.8|Blue +1.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -112.0|Blue +112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Hakeem DawoduTargetKyle Bochniak

By target zone

35% acc · 50%

Head

34% acc · 64%

73% acc · 34%

Body

44% acc · 10%

94% acc · 17%

Leg

52% acc · 26%

By position

48% acc · 96%

Distance

38% acc · 88%

100% acc · 4%

Clinch

30% acc · 7%

Ground

100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Hakeem Dawodu rounds

even

Kyle Bochniak rounds

Round 1Hakeem Dawodu edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:36Control

Round 2Hakeem Dawodu edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

Round 3Hakeem Dawodu edged it

Sig. strikes47

Takedowns0

Control0:02

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:59Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

103 / 212

Sig Strikes

42 / 109

48.3%

Sig Str %

38%

103 / 212

Total Strikes

47 / 114

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 12

—

TD %

15%

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

1:52

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Kyle Bochniak	10 / 26	10 / 26	1 / 4
1	Hakeem Dawodu	25 / 53	25 / 53	0 / 0
2	Kyle Bochniak	12 / 32	15 / 35	0 / 3
2	Hakeem Dawodu	31 / 81	31 / 81	0 / 0
3	Kyle Bochniak	20 / 51	22 / 53	1 / 5
3	Hakeem Dawodu	47 / 78	47 / 78	0 / 0

Hakeem Dawodu

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights10

Kyle Bochniak

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights7