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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Julian Erosa won · U-DEC R3

Elo1473

Elo1495

Hakeem DawoduvsJulian ErosaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · Saturday, September 10, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Julian Erosa won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupHakeem Dawodu: StrikervsJulian Erosa: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Julian Erosa wins(54.5%)

Actual result: Julian Erosa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Julian Erosa at +185 American odds

+$185 profit

$285 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Julian Erosa (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Hakeem Dawodu

Red Corner

Julian Erosa

Blue Corner

-215

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+185

(35%)

1473

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

6'1"

185.42 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Hakeem Dawodu

oldest →

vs Julio Arce · Nov 19

vs Zubaira Tukhugov · Sep 20

vs Movsar Evloev · Jun 21

vs Michael Trizano · Feb 22

vs Cub Swanson · Aug 23

latest

Julian ErosaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Ricardo Ramos · Mar 24

SUBvs Christian Rodriguez · Jul 24

KOvs Darren Elkins · Apr 25

vs Melquizael Costa · May 25

KOvs Lerryan Douglas · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Hakeem DawoduMetricJulian Erosa

5.45

Strikes / min

6.18

3.37

Strikes absorbed / min

6.31

56%

Strike defense

48%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.73

65%

Takedown defense

61%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.08Δ 2.21 — meaningful gap-0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Hakeem DawoduJulian Erosa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Hakeem Dawodu(10 fights)Julian Erosa(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -21.5|Blue +21.5

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Hakeem DawoduTargetJulian Erosa

By target zone

39% acc · 58%

Head

40% acc · 65%

86% acc · 24%

Body

88% acc · 30%

76% acc · 18%

Leg

57% acc · 4%

By position

45% acc · 77%

Distance

40% acc · 64%

80% acc · 22%

Clinch

80% acc · 26%

100% acc · 1%

Ground

100% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Hakeem Dawodu rounds

even

Julian Erosa rounds

Round 1Julian Erosa edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:04

48Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:41Control

Round 2Julian Erosa edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:30Control

Round 3Julian Erosa edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:08

22Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:11Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

74 / 147

Sig Strikes

92 / 188

50%

Sig Str %

47.3%

90 / 163

Total Strikes

152 / 257

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 6

—

TD %

44.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:12

Ctrl Time

4:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Julian Erosa	48 / 87	60 / 99	0 / 2
1	Hakeem Dawodu	31 / 57	36 / 62	0 / 0
2	Julian Erosa	22 / 51	47 / 80	1 / 1
2	Hakeem Dawodu	21 / 39	28 / 46	0 / 0
3	Julian Erosa	22 / 50	45 / 78	1 / 3
3	Hakeem Dawodu	22 / 51	26 / 55	0 / 0

Hakeem Dawodu

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights10

Julian Erosa

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights18