Featherweight

3 Rounds

Hakeem Dawodu won · U-DEC R3

Elo1473

Elo1491

Hakeem DawoduvsAustin ArnettUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 · Saturday, July 28, 2018Calgary, Alberta, Canada

Official fight result

Hakeem Dawodu won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupHakeem Dawodu: StrikervsAustin Arnett: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Austin Arnett wins(60.5%)

Actual result: Hakeem Dawodu wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Austin Arnett at +375 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Hakeem Dawodu

Red Corner

Austin Arnett

Blue Corner

-470

(82%)

Vegas Odds

+375

(21%)

1473

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

6'0"

185.42 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Hakeem DawoduL2 streak

oldest →

vs Zubaira Tukhugov · Sep 20

vs Movsar Evloev · Jun 21

vs Michael Trizano · Feb 22

vs Julian Erosa · Sep 22

vs Cub Swanson · Aug 23

latest

Austin Arnett

oldest →

KOvs Cory Sandhagen · Jan 18

vs Humberto Bandenay · Nov 18

vs Shane Young · Feb 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Hakeem DawoduMetricAustin Arnett

5.45

Strikes / min

4.52

3.37

Strikes absorbed / min

6.38

56%

Strike defense

62%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.44

65%

Takedown defense

57%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.08Δ 3.94 — meaningful gap-1.86

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Hakeem DawoduAustin Arnett

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Hakeem Dawodu(10 fights)Austin Arnett(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -18.2|Blue +18.2

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Hakeem DawoduTargetAustin Arnett

By target zone

26% acc · 37%

Head

33% acc · 96%

44% acc · 11%

Body

100% acc · 4%

89% acc · 52%

Leg

By position

44% acc · 93%

Distance

33% acc · 96%

45% acc · 7%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Hakeem Dawodu rounds

even

Austin Arnett rounds

Round 1Hakeem Dawodu edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Hakeem Dawodu edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Hakeem Dawodu edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:46

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

75 / 170

Sig Strikes

23 / 68

49%

Sig Str %

22.3%

80 / 176

Total Strikes

23 / 68

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 4

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:46

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Austin Arnett	0 / 7	0 / 7	0 / 2
1	Hakeem Dawodu	17 / 25	17 / 25	0 / 0
2	Austin Arnett	19 / 46	19 / 46	0 / 0
2	Hakeem Dawodu	31 / 79	31 / 79	0 / 1
3	Austin Arnett	4 / 15	4 / 15	0 / 2
3	Hakeem Dawodu	27 / 66	32 / 72	0 / 0

Hakeem Dawodu

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights10

Austin Arnett

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights4