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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Nik Lentz won · U-DEC R3

Elo1362

Elo1395

Hacran DiasvsNik LentzUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold · Saturday, May 18, 2013Jaragua do Sul, Santa Catarina, Brazil

Official fight result

Nik Lentz won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupHacran Dias: WrestlervsNik Lentz: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Hacran Dias wins(50.3%)

Actual result: Nik Lentz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Hacran Dias at -109 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Hacran Dias enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Nik Lentz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Hacran Dias has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Hacran Dias

Red Corner

Nik Lentz

Blue Corner

-109

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-101

(50%)

1362

Elo

1395

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'8"

175.26 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Hacran DiasL3 streak

oldest →

vs Darren Elkins · Dec 14

vs Levan Makashvili · Jun 15

vs Cub Swanson · Apr 16

vs Andre Fili · Oct 16

vs Jared Gordon · Oct 17

latest

Nik LentzL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Gray Maynard · Oct 18

vs Scott Holtzman · Feb 19

KOvs Charles Oliveira · May 19

vs Arnold Allen · Jan 20

vs Movsar Evloev · Jan 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Hacran DiasMetricNik Lentz

2.08

Strikes / min

3.44

3.31

Strikes absorbed / min

3.25

55%

Strike defense

50%

2.50

TDs / 15 min

3.30

76%

Takedown defense

43%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.23Δ 1.42 — meaningful gap+0.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Hacran DiasNik Lentz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Hacran Dias(8 fights)Nik Lentz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -32.5|Blue +32.5

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -3.1|Blue +3.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Layoff

Red +210.0|Blue -210.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Hacran DiasTargetNik Lentz

By target zone

44% acc · 90%

Head

40% acc · 81%

50% acc · 3%

Body

67% acc · 10%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

80% acc · 10%

By position

38% acc · 63%

Distance

28% acc · 40%

69% acc · 28%

Clinch

60% acc · 14%

100% acc · 10%

Ground

79% acc · 45%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Hacran Dias rounds

even

Nik Lentz rounds

Round 1Nik Lentz edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:33

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:17Control

Round 2Nik Lentz edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:04

Knockdowns0

23Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

4:30Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Hacran Dias edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns1

Control3:03

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:42Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

40 / 86

Sig Strikes

42 / 95

45.7%

Sig Str %

42.7%

56 / 103

Total Strikes

61 / 114

1 / 3

TDs

4 / 17

50%

TD %

24%

Sub Att

Rev

3:40

Ctrl Time

7:29

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Nik Lentz	13 / 41	15 / 43	1 / 8	0
1	Hacran Dias	10 / 29	15 / 34	0 / 2	0
2	Nik Lentz	23 / 34	38 / 49	3 / 5	0
2	Hacran Dias	6 / 12	9 / 15	0 / 0	0
3	Nik Lentz	6 / 20	8 / 22	0 / 4	0
3	Hacran Dias	24 / 45	32 / 54	1 / 1	1

Hacran Dias

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights8

Nik Lentz

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights22