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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Jared Gordon won · U-DEC R3

Elo1362

Elo1483

Hacran DiasvsJared GordonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida · Saturday, October 28, 2017Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Jared Gordon won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupHacran Dias: WrestlervsJared Gordon: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Jared Gordon wins(53.0%)

Actual result: Jared Gordon wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jared Gordon at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Hacran Dias has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Hacran Dias

Red Corner

Jared Gordon

Blue Corner

+135

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-155

(61%)

1362

Elo

1483

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'9"

175.26 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Hacran DiasL2 streak

oldest →

vs Ricardo Lamas · Jun 14

vs Darren Elkins · Dec 14

vs Levan Makashvili · Jun 15

vs Cub Swanson · Apr 16

vs Andre Fili · Oct 16

latest

Jared GordonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mark Madsen · Nov 23

vs Nasrat Haqparast · Jun 24

KOvs Thiago Moises · May 25

KOvs Rafa Garcia · Sep 25

SUBvs Jim Miller · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Hacran DiasMetricJared Gordon

2.08

Strikes / min

5.57

3.31

Strikes absorbed / min

4.11

55%

Strike defense

55%

2.50

TDs / 15 min

1.91

76%

Takedown defense

60%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.23Δ 2.69 — meaningful gap+1.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Hacran DiasJared Gordon

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Hacran Dias(8 fights)Jared Gordon(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -120.2|Blue +120.2

Recent Form

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Striker Score

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +267.0|Blue -267.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Hacran DiasTargetJared Gordon

By target zone

29% acc · 88%

Head

48% acc · 91%

33% acc · 6%

Body

47% acc · 9%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

By position

30% acc · 97%

Distance

26% acc · 29%

33% acc · 3%

Clinch

73% acc · 11%

Ground

73% acc · 60%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Hacran Dias rounds

even

Jared Gordon rounds

Round 1Hacran Dias edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:33Control

Round 2Jared Gordon edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:30

56Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:37Control

Round 3Jared Gordon edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:07

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:54Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 106

Sig Strikes

101 / 210

26.3%

Sig Str %

45.3%

41 / 115

Total Strikes

163 / 285

0 / 3

TDs

2 / 7

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:37

Ctrl Time

6:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jared Gordon	14 / 55	18 / 61	1 / 1	0
1	Hacran Dias	21 / 58	22 / 59	0 / 2	0
2	Jared Gordon	56 / 99	77 / 129	1 / 2	0
2	Hacran Dias	3 / 22	8 / 27	0 / 1	0
3	Jared Gordon	31 / 56	68 / 95	0 / 4	0
3	Hacran Dias	8 / 26	11 / 29	0 / 0	1

Hacran Dias

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights8

Jared Gordon

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights17