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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Gustavo Lopez won · SUB
Elo1493
Gustavo Lopez
Elo1399

Gustavo LopezvsAnthony BirchakUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Teixeira · Saturday, November 7, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Gustavo Lopez won

SUB

Model Prediction: Anthony Birchak wins(66.1%)

Actual result: Gustavo Lopez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Anthony Birchak at +108 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Anthony Birchak is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Gustavo Lopez has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Gustavo Lopez threatens submissions; Anthony Birchak has lost 50% of fights by sub.
  • Anthony Birchak has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Gustavo Lopez
Red Corner
VS
Anthony Birchak
Blue Corner
-134
(57%)
Vegas Odds
+108
(48%)
1493
Elo
1399
37
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'5"
Height
5'8"
170.18 cm
Reach
175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gustavo LopezL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Merab Dvalishvili · Jun 20
L
KOvs Adrian Yanez · Mar 21
latest
Anthony Birchak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Ian Entwistle · Dec 14
W
KOvs Joe Soto · Jun 15
L
KOvs Thomas Almeida · Nov 15
W
vs Dileno Lopes · Jul 16
L
KOvs Tony Gravely · Apr 21
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gustavo LopezMetricAnthony Birchak
2.48
Strikes / min
3.93
3.87
Strikes absorbed / min
3.67
57%
Strike defense
56%
1.74
TDs / 15 min
0.48
31%
Takedown defense
61%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.39Δ 1.65 — meaningful gap+0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1485 vs 1501Strikes0.9 vs 4.0Takedowns0.0 vs 0.7Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form-1.0 vs 0.3
Gustavo LopezAnthony Birchak

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Gustavo Lopez(3 fights)Anthony Birchak(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +94.1|Blue -94.1
Recent Form
Red -1.3|Blue +1.3
Striker Score
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red -1437.0|Blue +1437.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gustavo LopezTargetAnthony Birchak

By target zone

17
52% acc · 65%
Head
8
30% acc · 47%
9
90% acc · 35%
Body
5
56% acc · 29%
0
Leg
4
100% acc · 24%

By position

15
56% acc · 58%
Distance
12
36% acc · 71%
5
71% acc · 19%
Clinch
3
60% acc · 18%
6
67% acc · 23%
Ground
2
100% acc · 12%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Gustavo Lopez rounds
0
even
0
Anthony Birchak rounds
Round 1Gustavo Lopez edged it
Sig. strikes26
Takedowns2
Control1:06
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
26 / 43
Sig Strikes
17 / 40
60%
Sig Str %
42%
33 / 50
Total Strikes
18 / 41
2 / 3
TDs
0 / 0
66%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:06
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Anthony Birchak17 / 4018 / 410 / 00
1Gustavo Lopez26 / 4333 / 502 / 31

Gustavo Lopez

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights3

Anthony Birchak

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights6