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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Kaue Fernandes won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1531

Guram KutateladzevsKaue FernandesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · Saturday, March 22, 2025London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Kaue Fernandes won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupGuram Kutateladze: Well-roundedvsKaue Fernandes: Elusive striker

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Kaue Fernandes wins(56.5%)

Actual result: Kaue Fernandes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kaue Fernandes at +280 American odds

+$280 profit

$380 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Guram Kutateladze

Red Corner

Kaue Fernandes

Blue Corner

-350

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+280

(26%)

1492

Elo

1531

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'9"

182.88 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Guram Kutateladze

oldest →

vs Mateusz Gamrot · Oct 20

vs Damir Ismagulov · Jun 22

KOvs Elves Brener · Jul 23

vs Jordan Vucenic · Aug 24

latest

Kaue FernandesW2 streak

oldest →

vs Marc Diakiese · Nov 23

KOvs Mohammad Yahya · Aug 24

KOvs Harry Hardwick · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Guram KutateladzeMetricKaue Fernandes

3.53

Strikes / min

4.28

4.22

Strikes absorbed / min

1.42

54%

Strike defense

62%

0.61

TDs / 15 min

1.18

75%

Takedown defense

76%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.69Δ 3.55 — meaningful gap+2.86

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Guram KutateladzeKaue Fernandes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Guram Kutateladze(5 fights)Kaue Fernandes(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -39.3|Blue +39.3

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Guram KutateladzeTargetKaue Fernandes

By target zone

31% acc · 55%

Head

39% acc · 51%

67% acc · 34%

Body

84% acc · 20%

60% acc · 10%

Leg

85% acc · 29%

By position

36% acc · 79%

Distance

49% acc · 78%

86% acc · 21%

Clinch

100% acc · 6%

Ground

71% acc · 15%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Guram Kutateladze rounds

even

Kaue Fernandes rounds

Round 1Kaue Fernandes edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:05

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Round 2Kaue Fernandes edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

30Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:05Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Kaue Fernandes edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

23Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:31Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 71

Sig Strikes

79 / 149

39.7%

Sig Str %

52.7%

36 / 81

Total Strikes

79 / 149

0 / 5

TDs

2 / 2

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

1:43

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Kaue Fernandes	26 / 50	26 / 50	0 / 0
1	Guram Kutateladze	7 / 21	7 / 21	0 / 3
2	Kaue Fernandes	30 / 53	30 / 53	1 / 1
2	Guram Kutateladze	9 / 21	10 / 22	0 / 2
3	Kaue Fernandes	23 / 46	23 / 46	1 / 1
3	Guram Kutateladze	13 / 29	19 / 38	0 / 0

Guram Kutateladze

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights5

Kaue Fernandes

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights4