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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Gunnar Nelson won · SUB R2

Elo1497

Elo1499

Gunnar NelsonvsZak CummingsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Brandao · Saturday, July 19, 2014Dublin, Leinster, Ireland

Official fight result

Gunnar Nelson won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:48

Style matchupGunnar Nelson: WrestlervsZak Cummings: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Gunnar Nelson wins(58.0%)

Actual result: Gunnar Nelson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gunnar Nelson at -840 American odds

+$12 profit

$112 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Gunnar Nelson (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Gunnar Nelson

Red Corner

Zak Cummings

Blue Corner

-840

(89%)

Vegas Odds

+660

(13%)

1497

Elo

1499

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gunnar Nelson

oldest →

vs Leon Edwards · Mar 19

vs Gilbert Burns · Sep 19

vs Takashi Sato · Mar 22

SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Mar 23

vs Kevin Holland · Mar 25

latest

Zak CummingsW2 streak

oldest →

vs Trevor Smith · Dec 18

SUBvs Trevin Giles · May 19

vs Omari Akhmedov · Sep 19

vs Alessio Di Chirico · Aug 20

KOvs Ed Herman · Apr 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gunnar NelsonMetricZak Cummings

1.77

Strikes / min

2.96

3.06

Strikes absorbed / min

2.91

48%

Strike defense

55%

2.00

TDs / 15 min

0.62

68%

Takedown defense

66%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.29Δ 1.34 — meaningful gap+0.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gunnar NelsonZak Cummings

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gunnar Nelson(10 fights)Zak Cummings(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.7|Blue +2.7

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +63.0|Blue -63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gunnar NelsonTargetZak Cummings

By target zone

45% acc · 69%

Head

14% acc · 44%

100% acc · 31%

Body

50% acc · 28%

Leg

56% acc · 28%

By position

47% acc · 69%

Distance

13% acc · 44%

67% acc · 15%

Clinch

67% acc · 56%

100% acc · 15%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gunnar Nelson rounds

even

Zak Cummings rounds

Round 1Zak Cummings edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:33Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control0:43

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:21Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 24

Sig Strikes

18 / 75

58.5%

Sig Str %

24%

23 / 34

Total Strikes

21 / 79

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 1

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:43

Ctrl Time

0:54

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Zak Cummings	9 / 43	11 / 45	0 / 0	0
1	Gunnar Nelson	6 / 15	6 / 15	0 / 0	0
2	Zak Cummings	9 / 32	10 / 34	0 / 1	0
2	Gunnar Nelson	7 / 9	17 / 19	1 / 1	1

Gunnar Nelson

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights16

Zak Cummings

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights14