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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Gunnar Nelson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1497

Elo1459

Gunnar NelsonvsTakashi SatoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall · Saturday, March 19, 2022London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Gunnar Nelson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Gunnar Nelson wins(69.6%)

Actual result: Gunnar Nelson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gunnar Nelson at -525 American odds

+$19 profit

$119 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Takashi Sato enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Gunnar Nelson threatens submissions; Takashi Sato has lost 40% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Gunnar Nelson (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Gunnar Nelson

Red Corner

Takashi Sato

Blue Corner

-525

(84%)

Vegas Odds

+385

(21%)

1497

Elo

1459

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

5'10"

182.88 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gunnar Nelson

oldest →

SUBvs Alex Oliveira · Dec 18

vs Leon Edwards · Mar 19

vs Gilbert Burns · Sep 19

SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Mar 23

vs Kevin Holland · Mar 25

latest

Takashi SatoL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Belal Muhammad · Sep 19

KOvs Jason Witt · Jun 20

SUBvs Miguel Baeza · Nov 20

KOvs Bryan Battle · Aug 22

vs Themba Gorimbo · May 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gunnar NelsonMetricTakashi Sato

1.77

Strikes / min

2.21

3.06

Strikes absorbed / min

3.73

48%

Strike defense

44%

2.00

TDs / 15 min

0.76

68%

Takedown defense

60%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.29evenly matched on net striking-1.52

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gunnar NelsonTakashi Sato

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gunnar Nelson(10 fights)Takashi Sato(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +37.4|Blue -37.4

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +427.0|Blue -427.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gunnar NelsonTargetTakashi Sato

By target zone

77% acc · 82%

Head

25% acc · 44%

100% acc · 16%

Body

50% acc · 22%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

100% acc · 33%

By position

50% acc · 23%

Distance

39% acc · 100%

50% acc · 2%

Clinch

100% acc · 75%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gunnar Nelson rounds

even

Takashi Sato rounds

Round 1Gunnar Nelson edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns1

Control2:05

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Gunnar Nelson edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control2:36

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Gunnar Nelson edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control3:28

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

44 / 55

Sig Strikes

9 / 23

79%

Sig Str %

45.3%

140 / 166

Total Strikes

16 / 34

3 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

8:09

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Takashi Sato	4 / 12	4 / 12	0 / 0	0
1	Gunnar Nelson	24 / 29	46 / 52	1 / 1	0
2	Takashi Sato	3 / 4	3 / 4	0 / 0	0
2	Gunnar Nelson	12 / 16	25 / 32	1 / 1	0
3	Takashi Sato	2 / 7	9 / 18	0 / 0	0
3	Gunnar Nelson	8 / 10	69 / 82	1 / 1	1

Gunnar Nelson

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights16

Takashi Sato

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7