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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Santiago Ponzinibbio won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1497

Elo1477

Gunnar NelsonvsSantiago PonzinibbioUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio · Sunday, July 16, 2017Glasgow, Scotland, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Santiago Ponzinibbio won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:22

Style matchupGunnar Nelson: WrestlervsSantiago Ponzinibbio: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Santiago Ponzinibbio wins(53.8%)

Actual result: Santiago Ponzinibbio wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Santiago Ponzinibbio at +164 American odds

+$164 profit

$264 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Santiago Ponzinibbio has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Gunnar Nelson (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Gunnar Nelson

Red Corner

Santiago Ponzinibbio

Blue Corner

-174

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+164

(38%)

1497

Elo

1477

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gunnar Nelson

oldest →

vs Leon Edwards · Mar 19

vs Gilbert Burns · Sep 19

vs Takashi Sato · Mar 22

SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Mar 23

vs Kevin Holland · Mar 25

latest

Santiago PonzinibbioL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Kevin Holland · Apr 23

vs Muslim Salikhov · Jul 24

KOvs Carlston Harris · Jan 25

KOvs Daniel Rodriguez · May 25

KOvs Sam Patterson · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gunnar NelsonMetricSantiago Ponzinibbio

1.77

Strikes / min

4.78

3.06

Strikes absorbed / min

4.68

48%

Strike defense

61%

2.00

TDs / 15 min

0.60

68%

Takedown defense

71%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.29Δ 1.39 — meaningful gap+0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gunnar NelsonSantiago Ponzinibbio

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gunnar Nelson(10 fights)Santiago Ponzinibbio(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +19.6|Blue -19.6

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red -27.0|Blue +27.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gunnar NelsonTargetSantiago Ponzinibbio

By target zone

67% acc · 80%

Head

58% acc · 100%

Body

100% acc · 20%

Leg

By position

71% acc · 100%

Distance

44% acc · 57%

Clinch

Ground

100% acc · 43%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gunnar Nelson rounds

even

Santiago Ponzinibbio rounds

Round 1Santiago Ponzinibbio edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 7

Sig Strikes

7 / 12

71%

Sig Str %

58%

5 / 7

Total Strikes

7 / 12

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Santiago Ponzinibbio	7 / 12	7 / 12	0 / 0	0
1	Gunnar Nelson	5 / 7	5 / 7	0 / 0	0

Gunnar Nelson

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights16

Santiago Ponzinibbio

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights21