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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Rick Story won · S-DEC R5

Elo1497

Elo1491

Gunnar NelsonvsRick StoryUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story · Saturday, October 4, 2014Stockholm, Sweden

Official fight result

Rick Story won

S-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupGunnar Nelson: WrestlervsRick Story: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Gunnar Nelson wins(51.5%)

Actual result: Rick Story wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gunnar Nelson at -360 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rick Story has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Gunnar Nelson (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Gunnar Nelson

Red Corner

Rick Story

Blue Corner

-360

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+325

(24%)

1497

Elo

1491

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

5'9"

182.88 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gunnar Nelson

oldest →

vs Leon Edwards · Mar 19

vs Gilbert Burns · Sep 19

vs Takashi Sato · Mar 22

SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Mar 23

vs Kevin Holland · Mar 25

latest

Rick Story

oldest →

vs Brian Ebersole · Nov 13

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Mar 14

SUBvs Leonardo Mafra · Jul 14

vs Tarec Saffiedine · May 16

KOvs Donald Cerrone · Aug 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gunnar NelsonMetricRick Story

1.77

Strikes / min

3.80

3.06

Strikes absorbed / min

2.17

48%

Strike defense

62%

2.00

TDs / 15 min

2.53

68%

Takedown defense

63%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.29Δ 2.92 — meaningful gap+1.63

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gunnar NelsonRick Story

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gunnar Nelson(10 fights)Rick Story(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +6.0|Blue -6.0

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -3.0|Blue +3.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gunnar NelsonTargetRick Story

By target zone

45% acc · 74%

Head

38% acc · 48%

75% acc · 23%

Body

79% acc · 35%

50% acc · 4%

Leg

94% acc · 17%

By position

48% acc · 92%

Distance

137

51% acc · 82%

100% acc · 8%

Clinch

73% acc · 14%

Ground

58% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gunnar Nelson rounds

even

Rick Story rounds

Round 1Rick Story edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control0:16

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Rick Story edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

29Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 3Rick Story edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:05

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Rick Story edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns0

41Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:32Control

1Knockdowns

Round 5Rick Story edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

48Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

53 / 107

Sig Strikes

168 / 315

49.8%

Sig Str %

51.8%

54 / 108

Total Strikes

211 / 360

1 / 4

TDs

1 / 1

25%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:22

Ctrl Time

0:36

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rick Story	18 / 39	27 / 49	0 / 0
1	Gunnar Nelson	8 / 13	8 / 13	1 / 1
2	Rick Story	29 / 62	29 / 62	1 / 1
2	Gunnar Nelson	11 / 26	11 / 26	0 / 1
3	Rick Story	32 / 63	41 / 72	0 / 0
3	Gunnar Nelson	8 / 18	8 / 18	0 / 1
4	Gunnar Nelson	10 / 24	11 / 25	0 / 1
4	Rick Story	41 / 77	61 / 98	0 / 0
5	Rick Story	48 / 74	53 / 79	0 / 0
5	Gunnar Nelson	16 / 26	16 / 26	0 / 0

Gunnar Nelson

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights16

Rick Story

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights16