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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Gunnar Nelson won · SUB R1

Elo1497

Elo1494

Gunnar NelsonvsOmari AkhmedovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs Manuwa · Saturday, March 8, 2014London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Gunnar Nelson won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:36

Style matchupGunnar Nelson: WrestlervsOmari Akhmedov: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Gunnar Nelson wins(55.7%)

Actual result: Gunnar Nelson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gunnar Nelson at -280 American odds

+$36 profit

$136 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Gunnar Nelson (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Gunnar Nelson

Red Corner

Omari Akhmedov

Blue Corner

-280

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+255

(28%)

1497

Elo

1494

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gunnar Nelson

oldest →

vs Leon Edwards · Mar 19

vs Gilbert Burns · Sep 19

vs Takashi Sato · Mar 22

SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Mar 23

vs Kevin Holland · Mar 25

latest

Omari Akhmedov

oldest →

vs Zak Cummings · Sep 19

vs Ian Heinisch · Dec 19

DECvs Chris Weidman · Aug 20

SUBvs Tom Breese · Jan 21

vs Brad Tavares · Jul 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gunnar NelsonMetricOmari Akhmedov

1.77

Strikes / min

2.97

3.06

Strikes absorbed / min

2.84

48%

Strike defense

55%

2.00

TDs / 15 min

2.58

68%

Takedown defense

65%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.29Δ 1.42 — meaningful gap+0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gunnar NelsonOmari Akhmedov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gunnar Nelson(10 fights)Omari Akhmedov(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +2.8|Blue -2.8

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red +266.0|Blue -266.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gunnar NelsonTargetOmari Akhmedov

By target zone

79% acc · 94%

Head

11% acc · 17%

Body

67% acc · 33%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

75% acc · 50%

By position

100% acc · 13%

Distance

38% acc · 100%

Clinch

78% acc · 88%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gunnar Nelson rounds

even

Omari Akhmedov rounds

Round 1Gunnar Nelson edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control3:06

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 20

Sig Strikes

6 / 16

80%

Sig Str %

37%

25 / 32

Total Strikes

8 / 18

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:06

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Omari Akhmedov	6 / 16	8 / 18	0 / 0	0
1	Gunnar Nelson	16 / 20	25 / 32	1 / 1	1

Gunnar Nelson

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights16

Omari Akhmedov

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights14