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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Kevin Holland won · U-DEC R3

Elo1497

Elo1510

Gunnar NelsonvsKevin HollandUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · Saturday, March 22, 2025London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Kevin Holland won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupGunnar Nelson: WrestlervsKevin Holland: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Kevin Holland wins(71.6%)

Actual result: Kevin Holland wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kevin Holland at +108 American odds

+$108 profit

$208 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Gunnar Nelson (52.9%).
Kevin Holland has a 23cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Gunnar Nelson

Red Corner

Kevin Holland

Blue Corner

-126

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+108

(48%)

1497

Elo

1510

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'3"

182.88 cm

Reach

205.74 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gunnar NelsonW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Alex Oliveira · Dec 18

vs Leon Edwards · Mar 19

vs Gilbert Burns · Sep 19

vs Takashi Sato · Mar 22

SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Mar 23

latest

Kevin Holland

oldest →

SUBvs Reinier de Ridder · Jan 25

SUBvs Vicente Luque · Jun 25

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jul 25

vs Mike Malott · Oct 25

DECvs Randy Brown · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gunnar NelsonMetricKevin Holland

1.77

Strikes / min

4.24

3.06

Strikes absorbed / min

3.21

48%

Strike defense

50%

2.00

TDs / 15 min

0.79

68%

Takedown defense

57%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.29Δ 2.32 — meaningful gap+1.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gunnar NelsonKevin Holland

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gunnar Nelson(10 fights)Kevin Holland(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -13.3|Blue +13.3

Recent Form

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +672.0|Blue -672.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gunnar NelsonTargetKevin Holland

By target zone

53% acc · 67%

Head

53% acc · 55%

100% acc · 27%

Body

75% acc · 27%

100% acc · 7%

Leg

83% acc · 18%

By position

29% acc · 13%

Distance

44% acc · 27%

88% acc · 47%

Clinch

81% acc · 40%

67% acc · 40%

Ground

64% acc · 33%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gunnar Nelson rounds

even

Kevin Holland rounds

Round 1Kevin Holland edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control2:55

Knockdowns0

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Kevin Holland edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control3:22

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:29Control

Round 3Kevin Holland edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control3:12

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:27Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

15 / 24

Sig Strikes

55 / 89

60.7%

Sig Str %

63%

30 / 44

Total Strikes

138 / 178

3 / 10

TDs

0 / 1

48.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

9:29

Ctrl Time

1:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kevin Holland	19 / 37	31 / 51	0 / 1	0
1	Gunnar Nelson	5 / 9	13 / 20	1 / 1	0
2	Kevin Holland	17 / 23	73 / 82	0 / 0	0
2	Gunnar Nelson	3 / 6	7 / 11	1 / 5	0
3	Kevin Holland	19 / 29	34 / 45	0 / 0	0
3	Gunnar Nelson	7 / 9	10 / 13	1 / 4	1

Gunnar Nelson

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights16

Kevin Holland

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights27