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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Gunnar Nelson won · U-DEC R3
Elo1497
Gunnar Nelson
Elo1352
Jorge Santiago

Gunnar NelsonvsJorge SantiagoUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDonald · Saturday, February 16, 2013London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Gunnar Nelson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Gunnar Nelson wins(55.4%)

Actual result: Gunnar Nelson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gunnar Nelson at -330 American odds

+$30 profit

$130 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Gunnar Nelson has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Gunnar Nelson (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Gunnar Nelson
Red Corner
VS
Jorge Santiago
Blue Corner
-330
(77%)
Vegas Odds
+300
(25%)
1497
Elo
1352
38
Age
45
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'1"
182.88 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gunnar Nelson
oldest →
L
vs Leon Edwards · Mar 19
L
vs Gilbert Burns · Sep 19
W
vs Takashi Sato · Mar 22
W
SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Mar 23
L
vs Kevin Holland · Mar 25
latest
Jorge SantiagoL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Brian Stann · May 11
L
vs Demian Maia · Oct 11
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gunnar NelsonMetricJorge Santiago
1.77
Strikes / min
1.69
3.06
Strikes absorbed / min
2.62
48%
Strike defense
56%
2.00
TDs / 15 min
0.58
68%
Takedown defense
52%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.29evenly matched on net striking-0.93

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1515 vs 1466Strikes9.0 vs 12.2Takedowns1.0 vs 0.4Sub Atts2.00 vs 0.60Form1.0 vs -1.0
Gunnar NelsonJorge Santiago

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Gunnar Nelson(10 fights)Jorge Santiago(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +144.6|Blue -144.6
Recent Form
Red +1.9|Blue -1.9
Striker Score
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Grappler Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Layoff
Red -357.0|Blue +357.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gunnar NelsonTargetJorge Santiago

By target zone

32
48% acc · 76%
Head
19
20% acc · 44%
4
57% acc · 10%
Body
22
79% acc · 51%
6
100% acc · 14%
Leg
2
100% acc · 5%

By position

21
44% acc · 50%
Distance
20
22% acc · 47%
6
67% acc · 14%
Clinch
22
73% acc · 51%
15
65% acc · 36%
Ground
1
100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Gunnar Nelson rounds
1
even
1
Jorge Santiago rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns1
Control0:55
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Gunnar Nelson edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns1
Control4:00
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Jorge Santiago edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:43
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:12Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
42 / 80
Sig Strikes
43 / 123
52.7%
Sig Str %
39%
47 / 86
Total Strikes
52 / 134
2 / 4
TDs
0 / 0
50%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
5:38
Ctrl Time
0:12

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jorge Santiago15 / 4418 / 480 / 00
1Gunnar Nelson9 / 169 / 161 / 20
2Jorge Santiago5 / 1011 / 170 / 00
2Gunnar Nelson19 / 3224 / 381 / 10
3Jorge Santiago23 / 6923 / 690 / 00
3Gunnar Nelson14 / 3214 / 320 / 10

Gunnar Nelson

StanceSwitch
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights16

Jorge Santiago

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights3