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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Gilbert Burns won · U-DEC R3

Elo1497

Elo1466

Gunnar NelsonvsGilbert BurnsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier · Saturday, September 28, 2019Copenhagen, Denmark

Official fight result

Gilbert Burns won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupGunnar Nelson: WrestlervsGilbert Burns: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Gilbert Burns wins(56.8%)

Actual result: Gilbert Burns wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gilbert Burns at -115 American odds

+$87 profit

$187 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gilbert Burns enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Gunnar Nelson has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Gunnar Nelson (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Gunnar Nelson

Red Corner

Gilbert Burns

Blue Corner

-105

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-115

(53%)

1497

Elo

1466

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'10"

182.88 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gunnar Nelson

oldest →

SUBvs Alex Oliveira · Dec 18

vs Leon Edwards · Mar 19

vs Takashi Sato · Mar 22

SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Mar 23

vs Kevin Holland · Mar 25

latest

Gilbert BurnsL5 streak

oldest →

vs Belal Muhammad · May 23

KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · Mar 24

vs Sean Brady · Sep 24

KOvs Michael Morales · May 25

KOvs Mike Malott · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gunnar NelsonMetricGilbert Burns

1.77

Strikes / min

3.16

3.06

Strikes absorbed / min

3.68

48%

Strike defense

52%

2.00

TDs / 15 min

2.04

68%

Takedown defense

53%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.29evenly matched on net striking-0.52

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gunnar NelsonGilbert Burns

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gunnar Nelson(10 fights)Gilbert Burns(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +30.9|Blue -30.9

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +147.0|Blue -147.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gunnar NelsonTargetGilbert Burns

By target zone

39% acc · 45%

Head

17% acc · 27%

80% acc · 20%

Body

73% acc · 27%

88% acc · 35%

Leg

78% acc · 47%

By position

56% acc · 90%

Distance

35% acc · 63%

67% acc · 10%

Clinch

56% acc · 33%

0% acc

Ground

33% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gunnar Nelson rounds

even

Gilbert Burns rounds

Round 1Gilbert Burns edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:28

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:15Control

Round 2Gilbert Burns edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control1:58

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:57Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control2:23

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:43Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 36

Sig Strikes

30 / 76

57.3%

Sig Str %

39%

26 / 45

Total Strikes

46 / 99

0 / 2

TDs

1 / 3

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

4:49

Ctrl Time

1:55

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Gilbert Burns	11 / 28	11 / 30	0 / 1	0
1	Gunnar Nelson	7 / 13	7 / 14	0 / 0	0
2	Gilbert Burns	11 / 27	18 / 34	0 / 1	1
2	Gunnar Nelson	6 / 14	7 / 17	0 / 2	0
3	Gilbert Burns	8 / 21	17 / 35	1 / 1	0
3	Gunnar Nelson	7 / 9	12 / 14	0 / 0	0

Gunnar Nelson

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights16

Gilbert Burns

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights24