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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Gunnar Nelson won · SUB R1

Elo1497

Elo1491

Gunnar NelsonvsBryan BarberenaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · Saturday, March 18, 2023London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Gunnar Nelson won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:51

Style matchupGunnar Nelson: WrestlervsBryan Barberena: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Gunnar Nelson wins(62.2%)

Actual result: Gunnar Nelson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gunnar Nelson at -350 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Bryan Barberena enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Gunnar Nelson threatens submissions; Bryan Barberena has lost 30% of fights by sub.
Gunnar Nelson has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Gunnar Nelson (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Gunnar Nelson

Red Corner

Bryan Barberena

Blue Corner

-350

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+310

(24%)

1497

Elo

1491

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gunnar Nelson

oldest →

SUBvs Alex Oliveira · Dec 18

vs Leon Edwards · Mar 19

vs Gilbert Burns · Sep 19

vs Takashi Sato · Mar 22

vs Kevin Holland · Mar 25

latest

Bryan BarberenaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Matt Brown · Mar 22

KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 22

SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Dec 22

vs Makhmud Muradov · Jul 23

SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Mar 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gunnar NelsonMetricBryan Barberena

1.77

Strikes / min

5.35

3.06

Strikes absorbed / min

4.59

48%

Strike defense

44%

2.00

TDs / 15 min

0.13

68%

Takedown defense

50%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.29Δ 2.05 — meaningful gap+0.76

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gunnar NelsonBryan Barberena

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gunnar Nelson(10 fights)Bryan Barberena(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +5.1|Blue -5.1

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +259.0|Blue -259.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gunnar NelsonTargetBryan Barberena

By target zone

89% acc · 80%

Head

43% acc · 43%

100% acc · 20%

Body

Leg

80% acc · 57%

By position

50% acc · 10%

Distance

55% acc · 86%

100% acc · 20%

Clinch

100% acc · 70%

Ground

100% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gunnar Nelson rounds

even

Bryan Barberena rounds

Round 1Gunnar Nelson edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control3:13

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 11

Sig Strikes

7 / 12

90%

Sig Str %

58%

20 / 21

Total Strikes

18 / 23

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:13

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Bryan Barberena	7 / 12	18 / 23	0 / 0	0
1	Gunnar Nelson	10 / 11	20 / 21	1 / 2	1

Gunnar Nelson

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights16

Bryan Barberena

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights19