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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Gunnar Nelson won · SUB R1

Elo1497

Elo1359

Gunnar NelsonvsBrandon ThatchUFC Prediction Result

UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor · Saturday, July 11, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Gunnar Nelson won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:54

Model Prediction: Gunnar Nelson wins(66.4%)

Actual result: Gunnar Nelson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gunnar Nelson at +150 American odds

+$150 profit

$250 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brandon Thatch enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Gunnar Nelson threatens submissions; Brandon Thatch has lost 100% of fights by sub.
Gunnar Nelson has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Gunnar Nelson

Red Corner

Brandon Thatch

Blue Corner

+150

(40%)

Vegas Odds

-170

(63%)

1497

Elo

1359

Age

Switch

Stance

Switch

5'11"

Height

6'2"

182.88 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gunnar Nelson

oldest →

vs Leon Edwards · Mar 19

vs Gilbert Burns · Sep 19

vs Takashi Sato · Mar 22

SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Mar 23

vs Kevin Holland · Mar 25

latest

Brandon ThatchL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Justin Edwards · Aug 13

KOvs Paulo Thiago · Nov 13

SUBvs Benson Henderson · Feb 15

SUBvs Siyar Bahadurzada · Mar 16

SUBvs Niko Price · Dec 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gunnar NelsonMetricBrandon Thatch

1.77

Strikes / min

2.70

3.06

Strikes absorbed / min

3.63

48%

Strike defense

52%

2.00

TDs / 15 min

1.36

68%

Takedown defense

50%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.29evenly matched on net striking-0.93

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gunnar NelsonBrandon Thatch

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gunnar Nelson(10 fights)Brandon Thatch(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +137.7|Blue -137.7

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +133.0|Blue -133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gunnar NelsonTargetBrandon Thatch

By target zone

86% acc · 100%

Head

0% acc

Body

100% acc · 38%

Leg

83% acc · 63%

By position

80% acc · 67%

Distance

45% acc · 63%

0% acc

Clinch

100% acc · 38%

100% acc · 33%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gunnar Nelson rounds

even

Brandon Thatch rounds

Round 1Gunnar Nelson edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control1:26

Knockdowns1

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

6 / 8

Sig Strikes

8 / 14

75%

Sig Str %

57%

20 / 24

Total Strikes

8 / 14

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:26

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Brandon Thatch	8 / 14	8 / 14	0 / 0	0
1	Gunnar Nelson	6 / 8	20 / 24	0 / 0	1

Gunnar Nelson

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights16

Brandon Thatch

StanceSwitch

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights6