← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Gunnar Nelson won · SUB R2

Elo1497

Elo1493

Gunnar NelsonvsAlan JoubanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. Anderson · Saturday, March 18, 2017London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Gunnar Nelson won

SUB · Round 2 · 0:46

Style matchupGunnar Nelson: WrestlervsAlan Jouban: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Alan Jouban wins(61.2%)

Actual result: Gunnar Nelson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alan Jouban at +275 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alan Jouban has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Gunnar Nelson (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Gunnar Nelson

Red Corner

Alan Jouban

Blue Corner

-335

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+275

(27%)

1497

Elo

1493

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gunnar Nelson

oldest →

vs Leon Edwards · Mar 19

vs Gilbert Burns · Sep 19

vs Takashi Sato · Mar 22

SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Mar 23

vs Kevin Holland · Mar 25

latest

Alan Jouban

oldest →

vs Mike Perry · Dec 16

KOvs Niko Price · Aug 17

KOvs Ben Saunders · Feb 18

vs Dwight Grant · Apr 19

vs Jared Gooden · Nov 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gunnar NelsonMetricAlan Jouban

1.77

Strikes / min

5.67

3.06

Strikes absorbed / min

3.77

48%

Strike defense

60%

2.00

TDs / 15 min

0.51

68%

Takedown defense

58%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.29Δ 3.19 — meaningful gap+1.90

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gunnar NelsonAlan Jouban

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gunnar Nelson(10 fights)Alan Jouban(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.6|Blue -3.6

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +223.0|Blue -223.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gunnar NelsonTargetAlan Jouban

By target zone

44% acc · 88%

Head

35% acc · 35%

50% acc · 13%

Body

29% acc · 12%

Leg

100% acc · 53%

By position

23% acc · 38%

Distance

52% acc · 100%

100% acc · 13%

Clinch

100% acc · 50%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gunnar Nelson rounds

even

Alan Jouban rounds

Round 1Gunnar Nelson edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control2:56

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Alan Jouban edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:07

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 18

Sig Strikes

17 / 33

36.5%

Sig Str %

51%

17 / 28

Total Strikes

17 / 33

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:03

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alan Jouban	10 / 19	10 / 19	0 / 0	0
1	Gunnar Nelson	7 / 13	16 / 23	1 / 2	0
2	Alan Jouban	7 / 14	7 / 14	0 / 0	0
2	Gunnar Nelson	1 / 5	1 / 5	0 / 0	1

Gunnar Nelson

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights16

Alan Jouban

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights13