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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Thomas Petersen won · Decision R3
Elo1498
Guilherme Pat editorial illustration
Elo1482
Thomas Petersen

Guilherme PatvsThomas PetersenUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · Saturday, April 4, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Official fight result

Thomas Petersen won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Engine 7.0 was wrong

Pre-fight pick: Guilherme Pat

If $100 had been placed on our pre-fight pick

Guilherme Pat at -120 American odds · hypothetical only

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Model Prediction: Guilherme Pat wins(53.1%)

Actual result: Thomas Petersen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors Thomas Petersen (53.5%).
  • Guilherme Pat has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Guilherme Pat
Red Corner
VS
Thomas Petersen
Blue Corner
-120
(55%)
Vegas Odds
-105
(51%)
1498
Elo
1482
32
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'6"
Height
6'1"
205.74 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Guilherme Pat
oldest →
W
vs Allen Frye Jr. · Dec 25
latest
Thomas PetersenL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Mohammed Usman · Jul 24
L
KOvs Shamil Gaziev · Feb 25
W
vs Don'Tale Mayes · May 25
L
KOvs Vitor Petrino · Oct 25
L
SUBvs Valter Walker · Jul 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Guilherme PatMetricThomas Petersen
2.70
Strikes / min
3.10
2.03
Strikes absorbed / min
2.61
51%
Strike defense
54%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
3.01
100%
Takedown defense
87%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.67evenly matched on net striking+0.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1514 vs 1490Strikes4.3 vs 3.4Takedowns0.0 vs 3.7Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.50Form1.0 vs -0.3
Guilherme PatThomas Petersen

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701485150015151530← oldermost recent →
Guilherme Pat(2 fights)Thomas Petersen(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +16.6|Blue -16.6
Recent Form
Red +1.3|Blue -1.3
Striker Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Layoff
Red -63.0|Blue +63.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Guilherme PatTargetThomas Petersen

By target zone

9
41% acc · 53%
Head
22
67% acc · 79%
3
100% acc · 18%
Body
2
50% acc · 7%
5
83% acc · 29%
Leg
4
100% acc · 14%

By position

16
55% acc · 94%
Distance
10
50% acc · 36%
1
50% acc · 6%
Clinch
4
80% acc · 14%
0
Ground
14
88% acc · 50%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Guilherme Pat rounds
1
even
2
Thomas Petersen rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:00
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
2:03Control
Round 2Thomas Petersen edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:00
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:55Control
Round 3Thomas Petersen edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
16Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
4:38Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
17 / 31
Sig Strikes
28 / 41
59.7%
Sig Str %
63.3%
25 / 42
Total Strikes
164 / 199
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 5
—
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
8:36

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Thomas Petersen4 / 928 / 350 / 30
1Guilherme Pat8 / 118 / 110 / 00
2Thomas Petersen8 / 1227 / 330 / 10
2Guilherme Pat7 / 1712 / 220 / 00
3Thomas Petersen16 / 20109 / 1310 / 10
3Guilherme Pat2 / 35 / 90 / 00

The Pick

Vegas favorite
Guilherme Pat
Odds
-120

Market-implied probability

Guilherme Pat 52%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Guilherme Pat (model pick · research)$183
Thomas Petersen$195

52% market-implied · model 58% (research) · vufc_v4_pure_sklearn_histgb_20260517_110941

🔒 Pick locked May 17, 2026, 11:10 AM UTC · never rewritten

Guilherme Pat

StanceOrthodox
Height78.0"
Reach81.0"
Fights2

Thomas Petersen

StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights7