Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Guido Cannetti won · SUB R1

Elo1497

Elo1436

Guido CannettivsRandy CostaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · Saturday, October 1, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Guido Cannetti won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:04

Style matchupGuido Cannetti: WrestlervsRandy Costa: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Randy Costa wins(63.5%)

Actual result: Guido Cannetti wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Randy Costa at -280 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Randy Costa (54.1%).
Randy Costa has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Guido Cannetti

Red Corner

Randy Costa

Blue Corner

+235

(30%)

Vegas Odds

-280

(74%)

1497

Elo

1436

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

5'6"

Height

5'9"

172.72 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Guido Cannetti

oldest →

SUBvs Marlon Vera · Nov 18

KOvs Danaa Batgerel · Mar 20

vs Mana Martinez · Aug 21

KOvs Kris Moutinho · Mar 22

SUBvs Mario Bautista · Mar 23

latest

Randy CostaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Brandon Davis · Apr 19

KOvs Boston Salmon · Oct 19

KOvs Journey Newson · Sep 20

KOvs Adrian Yanez · Jul 21

KOvs Tony Kelley · Dec 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Guido CannettiMetricRandy Costa

3.44

Strikes / min

6.53

2.84

Strikes absorbed / min

7.58

51%

Strike defense

58%

2.27

TDs / 15 min

0.00

64%

Takedown defense

50%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.60Δ 1.65 — meaningful gap-1.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Guido CannettiRandy Costa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Guido Cannetti(10 fights)Randy Costa(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +60.6|Blue -60.6

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -91.0|Blue +91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Guido CannettiTargetRandy Costa

By target zone

20% acc · 13%

Head

0% acc

100% acc · 38%

Body

50% acc · 100%

80% acc · 50%

Leg

By position

62% acc · 100%

Distance

29% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Guido Cannetti rounds

even

Randy Costa rounds

Round 1Guido Cannetti edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control0:09

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 13

Sig Strikes

2 / 7

61%

Sig Str %

28%

8 / 13

Total Strikes

2 / 7

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:09

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Randy Costa	2 / 7	2 / 7	0 / 0	0
1	Guido Cannetti	8 / 13	8 / 13	1 / 1	1

Guido Cannetti

StanceSouthpaw

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights10

Randy Costa

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights6