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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Marlon Vera won · SUB R2

Elo1497

Elo1475

Guido CannettivsMarlon VeraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponzinibbio · Saturday, November 17, 2018Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina

Official fight result

Marlon Vera won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:31

Style matchupGuido Cannetti: WrestlervsMarlon Vera: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Guido Cannetti wins(52.4%)

Actual result: Marlon Vera wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Guido Cannetti at +260 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marlon Vera enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Marlon Vera (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Guido Cannetti

Red Corner

Marlon Vera

Blue Corner

+260

(28%)

Vegas Odds

-320

(76%)

1497

Elo

1475

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

5'6"

Height

5'8"

172.72 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Guido Cannetti

oldest →

KOvs Danaa Batgerel · Mar 20

vs Mana Martinez · Aug 21

KOvs Kris Moutinho · Mar 22

SUBvs Randy Costa · Oct 22

SUBvs Mario Bautista · Mar 23

latest

Marlon VeraL4 streak

oldest →

vs Pedro Munhoz · Aug 23

vs Sean O'Malley · Mar 24

vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Aug 24

vs Aiemann Zahabi · Oct 25

vs David Martinez · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Guido CannettiMetricMarlon Vera

3.44

Strikes / min

4.18

2.84

Strikes absorbed / min

5.34

51%

Strike defense

50%

2.27

TDs / 15 min

0.47

64%

Takedown defense

71%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.60Δ 1.76 — meaningful gap-1.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Guido CannettiMarlon Vera

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Guido Cannetti(10 fights)Marlon Vera(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +22.2|Blue -22.2

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +77.0|Blue -77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Guido CannettiTargetMarlon Vera

By target zone

44% acc · 46%

Head

72% acc · 54%

80% acc · 33%

Body

71% acc · 42%

71% acc · 21%

Leg

33% acc · 4%

By position

35% acc · 33%

Distance

30% acc · 13%

73% acc · 33%

Clinch

89% acc · 71%

100% acc · 33%

Ground

67% acc · 17%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Guido Cannetti rounds

even

Marlon Vera rounds

Round 1Guido Cannetti edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns2

Control2:32

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:53Control

Round 2Marlon Vera edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:16

Knockdowns0

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:28Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 42

Sig Strikes

24 / 35

51%

Sig Str %

66.5%

37 / 56

Total Strikes

36 / 48

2 / 4

TDs

2 / 2

50%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

2:48

Ctrl Time

1:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Marlon Vera	8 / 13	20 / 26	1 / 1	0
1	Guido Cannetti	21 / 35	34 / 49	2 / 4	0
2	Marlon Vera	16 / 22	16 / 22	1 / 1	2
2	Guido Cannetti	3 / 7	3 / 7	0 / 0	0

Guido Cannetti

StanceSouthpaw

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights10

Marlon Vera

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26