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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Gregory Rodrigues won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1548

Gregory Rodrigues editorial illustration

Elo1482

Gregory RodriguesvsDenis TiuliulinUFC Prediction Result

UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · Saturday, August 19, 2023Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Gregory Rodrigues won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:43

Style matchupGregory Rodrigues: Pressure fightervsDenis Tiuliulin: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Gregory Rodrigues wins(82.3%)

Actual result: Gregory Rodrigues wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gregory Rodrigues at -375 American odds

+$27 profit

$127 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gregory Rodrigues enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Denis Tiuliulin enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Denis Tiuliulin is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Gregory Rodrigues has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Gregory Rodrigues has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Gregory Rodrigues

Red Corner

Denis Tiuliulin

Blue Corner

-375

(79%)

Vegas Odds

+295

(25%)

1548

Elo

1482

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'1"

190.5 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gregory RodriguesW3 streak

oldest →

vs Christian Leroy Duncan · Jul 24

KOvs Jared Cannonier · Feb 25

KOvs Jack Hermansson · Jun 25

vs Roman Kopylov · Nov 25

KOvs Brunno Ferreira · Mar 26

latest

Denis TiuliulinL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Aliaskhab Khizriev · Mar 22

KOvs Jamie Pickett · Sep 22

SUBvs JunYong Park · Feb 23

KOvs Christian Leroy Duncan · Nov 23

vs Sedriques Dumas · Aug 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gregory RodriguesMetricDenis Tiuliulin

5.53

Strikes / min

3.61

4.78

Strikes absorbed / min

5.23

50%

Strike defense

38%

1.90

TDs / 15 min

0.96

75%

Takedown defense

72%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.75Δ 2.37 — meaningful gap-1.62

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gregory RodriguesDenis Tiuliulin

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gregory Rodrigues(10 fights)Denis Tiuliulin(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +66.7|Blue -66.7

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gregory RodriguesTargetDenis Tiuliulin

By target zone

80% acc · 80%

Head

29% acc · 100%

100% acc · 20%

Body

Leg

By position

50% acc · 20%

Distance

29% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 80%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gregory Rodrigues rounds

even

Denis Tiuliulin rounds

Round 1Gregory Rodrigues edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control0:47

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 6

Sig Strikes

2 / 7

83%

Sig Str %

28%

6 / 8

Total Strikes

3 / 8

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:47

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Denis Tiuliulin	2 / 7	3 / 8	0 / 0	0
1	Gregory Rodrigues	5 / 6	6 / 8	1 / 2	0

Gregory Rodrigues

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights13

Denis Tiuliulin

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights6