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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Brunno Ferreira won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1548

Gregory Rodrigues editorial illustration

Elo1504

Gregory RodriguesvsBrunno FerreiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · Saturday, January 21, 2023Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Brunno Ferreira won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:13

Style matchupGregory Rodrigues: Pressure fightervsBrunno Ferreira: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Gregory Rodrigues wins(71.9%)

Actual result: Brunno Ferreira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gregory Rodrigues at -305 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gregory Rodrigues enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Gregory Rodrigues is a KO finisher (70% of wins). Brunno Ferreira has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Brunno Ferreira is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Gregory Rodrigues has lost 67% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Gregory Rodrigues

Red Corner

Brunno Ferreira

Blue Corner

-305

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+255

(28%)

1548

Elo

1504

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

5'10"

190.5 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gregory RodriguesW3 streak

oldest →

vs Christian Leroy Duncan · Jul 24

KOvs Jared Cannonier · Feb 25

KOvs Jack Hermansson · Jun 25

vs Roman Kopylov · Nov 25

KOvs Brunno Ferreira · Mar 26

latest

Brunno FerreiraL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Armen Petrosyan · Mar 25

SUBvs Jackson McVey · Jul 25

vs Marvin Vettori · Dec 25

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Mar 26

DECvs Ikram Aliskerov · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gregory RodriguesMetricBrunno Ferreira

5.53

Strikes / min

3.77

4.78

Strikes absorbed / min

3.91

50%

Strike defense

51%

1.90

TDs / 15 min

1.25

75%

Takedown defense

61%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.75evenly matched on net striking-0.14

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gregory RodriguesBrunno Ferreira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gregory Rodrigues(10 fights)Brunno Ferreira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +44.3|Blue -44.3

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gregory RodriguesTargetBrunno Ferreira

By target zone

46% acc · 76%

Head

41% acc · 68%

83% acc · 24%

Body

67% acc · 9%

Leg

100% acc · 23%

By position

49% acc · 90%

Distance

47% acc · 91%

100% acc · 10%

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

Ground

100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gregory Rodrigues rounds

even

Brunno Ferreira rounds

Round 1Brunno Ferreira edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:10

Knockdowns0

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 41

Sig Strikes

22 / 45

51%

Sig Str %

48%

21 / 41

Total Strikes

23 / 46

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 2

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:10

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Brunno Ferreira	22 / 45	23 / 46	0 / 2	0
1	Gregory Rodrigues	21 / 41	21 / 41	0 / 0	0

Gregory Rodrigues

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights13

Brunno Ferreira

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights10