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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Gregor Gillespie won · SUB R2

Elo1494

Elo1488

Gregor GillespievsVinc PichelUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · Friday, June 1, 2018Utica, New York, USA

Official fight result

Gregor Gillespie won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:06

Style matchupGregor Gillespie: WrestlervsVinc Pichel: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Vinc Pichel wins(62.1%)

Actual result: Gregor Gillespie wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Vinc Pichel at +325 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Vinc Pichel enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Gregor Gillespie has 69pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Gregor Gillespie

Red Corner

Vinc Pichel

Blue Corner

-400

(80%)

Vegas Odds

+325

(24%)

1494

Elo

1488

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gregor Gillespie

oldest →

SUBvs Jason Gonzalez · Sep 17

KOvs Jordan Rinaldi · Jan 18

KOvs Yancy Medeiros · Jan 19

KOvs Kevin Lee · Nov 19

KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 21

latest

Vinc PichelL3 streak

oldest →

vs Jim Miller · Aug 20

vs Austin Hubbard · Aug 21

vs Mark Madsen · Apr 22

vs Ismael Bonfim · May 24

vs Rafa Garcia · Mar 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gregor GillespieMetricVinc Pichel

3.74

Strikes / min

3.78

2.30

Strikes absorbed / min

3.17

57%

Strike defense

54%

6.86

TDs / 15 min

2.50

100%

Takedown defense

31%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.44evenly matched on net striking+0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gregor GillespieVinc Pichel

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gregor Gillespie(8 fights)Vinc Pichel(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +5.9|Blue -5.9

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gregor GillespieTargetVinc Pichel

By target zone

46% acc · 85%

Head

29% acc · 86%

100% acc · 8%

Body

100% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 14%

By position

38% acc · 38%

Distance

18% acc · 43%

40% acc · 15%

Clinch

80% acc · 57%

75% acc · 46%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gregor Gillespie rounds

even

Vinc Pichel rounds

Round 1Gregor Gillespie edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns4

Control4:06

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Gregor Gillespie edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns3

Control3:45

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 26

Sig Strikes

7 / 22

51%

Sig Str %

32.5%

30 / 48

Total Strikes

35 / 51

7 / 9

TDs

0 / 0

77.5%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

7:51

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Vinc Pichel	3 / 12	12 / 22	0 / 0	0
1	Gregor Gillespie	8 / 17	20 / 34	4 / 5	1
2	Vinc Pichel	4 / 10	23 / 29	0 / 0	0
2	Gregor Gillespie	5 / 9	10 / 14	3 / 4	1

Gregor Gillespie

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights8

Vinc Pichel

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights12