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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Gregor Gillespie won · SUB R2
Elo1494
Gregor Gillespie
Elo1372
Jason Gonzalez

Gregor GillespievsJason GonzalezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Branch · Saturday, September 16, 2017Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA

Official fight result

Gregor Gillespie won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:11

Model Prediction: Gregor Gillespie wins(80.4%)

Actual result: Gregor Gillespie wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gregor Gillespie at -420 American odds

+$24 profit

$124 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Gregor Gillespie has 70pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Jason Gonzalez (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Gregor Gillespie
Red Corner
VS
Jason Gonzalez
Blue Corner
-420
(81%)
Vegas Odds
+335
(23%)
1494
Elo
1372
39
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'7"
Height
6'2"
180.34 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gregor Gillespie
oldest →
W
KOvs Jordan Rinaldi · Jan 18
W
SUBvs Vinc Pichel · Jun 18
W
KOvs Yancy Medeiros · Jan 19
L
KOvs Kevin Lee · Nov 19
W
KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 21
latest
Jason Gonzalez
oldest →
L
KOvs Drew Dober · Sep 16
W
SUBvs JC Cottrell · Jan 17
L
SUBvs Jim Miller · Apr 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gregor GillespieMetricJason Gonzalez
3.74
Strikes / min
3.06
2.30
Strikes absorbed / min
3.13
57%
Strike defense
58%
6.86
TDs / 15 min
0.00
100%
Takedown defense
30%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.44Δ 1.51 — meaningful gap-0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1537 vs 1499Strikes24.5 vs 7.0Takedowns2.5 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.50Form1.0 vs 0.2
Gregor GillespieJason Gonzalez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Gregor Gillespie(8 fights)Jason Gonzalez(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +121.4|Blue -121.4
Recent Form
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Striker Score
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red -70.0|Blue +70.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gregor GillespieTargetJason Gonzalez

By target zone

19
36% acc · 95%
Head
17
47% acc · 77%
1
33% acc · 5%
Body
5
71% acc · 23%
0
Leg
0

By position

12
35% acc · 60%
Distance
16
44% acc · 73%
1
17% acc · 5%
Clinch
5
100% acc · 23%
7
44% acc · 35%
Ground
1
50% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Gregor Gillespie rounds
0
even
0
Jason Gonzalez rounds
Round 1Gregor Gillespie edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns3
Control3:47
Knockdowns1
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Round 2Gregor Gillespie edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns1
Control2:01
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
20 / 56
Sig Strikes
22 / 43
25.5%
Sig Str %
50.5%
34 / 73
Total Strikes
27 / 50
4 / 6
TDs
0 / 0
80%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
5:48
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jason Gonzalez19 / 3722 / 420 / 00
1Gregor Gillespie19 / 4825 / 553 / 50
2Jason Gonzalez3 / 65 / 80 / 00
2Gregor Gillespie1 / 89 / 181 / 11

Gregor Gillespie

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights8

Jason Gonzalez

StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights4