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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Gregor Gillespie won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1494

Elo1362

Gregor GillespievsAndrew HolbrookUFC Prediction Result

UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2 · Saturday, April 8, 2017Buffalo, New York, USA

Official fight result

Gregor Gillespie won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:21

Style matchupGregor Gillespie: WrestlervsAndrew Holbrook: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Gregor Gillespie wins(65.5%)

Actual result: Gregor Gillespie wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gregor Gillespie at -290 American odds

+$34 profit

$134 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gregor Gillespie is a KO finisher (57% of wins). Andrew Holbrook has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Gregor Gillespie has 90pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Andrew Holbrook (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Gregor Gillespie

Red Corner

Andrew Holbrook

Blue Corner

-290

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+245

(29%)

1494

Elo

1362

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'11"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gregor Gillespie

oldest →

KOvs Jordan Rinaldi · Jan 18

SUBvs Vinc Pichel · Jun 18

KOvs Yancy Medeiros · Jan 19

KOvs Kevin Lee · Nov 19

KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 21

latest

Andrew Holbrook

oldest →

vs Ramsey Nijem · Jul 15

KOvs Joaquim Silva · Jul 16

vs Jake Matthews · Nov 16

KOvs Thibault Gouti · Sep 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gregor GillespieMetricAndrew Holbrook

3.74

Strikes / min

2.20

2.30

Strikes absorbed / min

3.00

57%

Strike defense

54%

6.86

TDs / 15 min

0.85

100%

Takedown defense

10%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

2.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.44Δ 2.24 — meaningful gap-0.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gregor GillespieAndrew Holbrook

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gregor Gillespie(8 fights)Andrew Holbrook(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +132.1|Blue -132.1

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +63.0|Blue -63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gregor GillespieTargetAndrew Holbrook

By target zone

64% acc · 88%

Head

38% acc · 75%

Body

100% acc · 25%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

By position

57% acc · 50%

Distance

44% acc · 100%

Clinch

80% acc · 50%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gregor Gillespie rounds

even

Andrew Holbrook rounds

Round 1Gregor Gillespie edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:05

Knockdowns1

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 12

Sig Strikes

4 / 9

66%

Sig Str %

44%

9 / 13

Total Strikes

4 / 9

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Andrew Holbrook	4 / 9	4 / 9	0 / 0	0
1	Gregor Gillespie	8 / 12	9 / 13	0 / 0	0

Gregor Gillespie

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights8

Andrew Holbrook

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights5