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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Greg Hardy won · U-DEC R3

Elo1419

Elo1398

Greg HardyvsYorgan De CastroUFC Prediction Result

UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · Saturday, May 9, 2020Jacksonville, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Greg Hardy won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Greg Hardy wins(55.8%)

Actual result: Greg Hardy wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Greg Hardy at -200 American odds

+$50 profit

$150 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Greg Hardy enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Yorgan De Castro is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Greg Hardy has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Greg Hardy has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Greg Hardy

Red Corner

Yorgan De Castro

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1419

Elo

1398

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'5"

Height

6'0"

203.2 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Greg HardyL3 streak

oldest →

DECvs Alekander Volkov · Nov 19

KOvs Maurice Greene · Oct 20

KOvs Marcin Tybura · Dec 20

KOvs Tai Tuivasa · Jul 21

KOvs Serghei Spivac · Mar 22

latest

Yorgan De CastroL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Justin Tafa · Oct 19

vs Carlos Felipe · Oct 20

KOvs Jarjis Danho · Apr 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Greg HardyMetricYorgan De Castro

4.79

Strikes / min

2.46

3.31

Strikes absorbed / min

3.85

55%

Strike defense

53%

0.20

TDs / 15 min

0.00

64%

Takedown defense

77%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.48Δ 2.87 — meaningful gap-1.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Greg HardyYorgan De Castro

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Greg Hardy(9 fights)Yorgan De Castro(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +21.1|Blue -21.1

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -35.0|Blue +35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Greg HardyTargetYorgan De Castro

By target zone

26% acc · 38%

Head

14% acc · 25%

78% acc · 13%

Body

29% acc · 8%

77% acc · 49%

Leg

89% acc · 67%

By position

44% acc · 100%

Distance

35% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Greg Hardy rounds

even

Yorgan De Castro rounds

Round 1Greg Hardy edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Greg Hardy edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Greg Hardy edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:53

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

55 / 124

Sig Strikes

24 / 69

44%

Sig Str %

33.7%

66 / 135

Total Strikes

24 / 69

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:53

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Yorgan De Castro	15 / 41	15 / 41	0 / 0
1	Greg Hardy	25 / 55	25 / 55	0 / 0
2	Yorgan De Castro	4 / 11	4 / 11	0 / 0
2	Greg Hardy	16 / 31	16 / 31	0 / 0
3	Yorgan De Castro	5 / 17	5 / 17	0 / 0
3	Greg Hardy	14 / 38	25 / 49	0 / 0

Greg Hardy

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights9

Yorgan De Castro

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights4