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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Greg Hardy won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1419
Greg Hardy
Elo1381
Juan Adams

Greg HardyvsJuan AdamsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Edwards · Saturday, July 20, 2019San Antonio, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Greg Hardy won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:45

Style matchupGreg Hardy: StrikervsJuan Adams: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Juan Adams wins(61.5%)

Actual result: Greg Hardy wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Juan Adams at -115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Greg Hardy enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Greg Hardy is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Juan Adams has lost 67% of fights by KO.
  • Juan Adams is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Greg Hardy has lost 60% of fights by KO.
  • Greg Hardy has 21pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Greg Hardy
Red Corner
VS
Juan Adams
Blue Corner
-105
(51%)
Vegas Odds
-115
(53%)
1419
Elo
1381
38
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'5"
Height
6'5"
203.2 cm
Reach
203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Greg HardyL3 streak
oldest →
W
vs Yorgan De Castro · May 20
W
KOvs Maurice Greene · Oct 20
L
KOvs Marcin Tybura · Dec 20
L
KOvs Tai Tuivasa · Jul 21
L
KOvs Serghei Spivac · Mar 22
latest
Juan AdamsL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Chris de la Rocha · Dec 18
L
vs Arjan Bhullar · May 19
L
KOvs Justin Tafa · Feb 20
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Greg HardyMetricJuan Adams
4.79
Strikes / min
7.09
3.31
Strikes absorbed / min
4.06
55%
Strike defense
34%
0.20
TDs / 15 min
0.91
64%
Takedown defense
57%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.48Δ 1.55 — meaningful gap+3.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1499 vs 1500Strikes4.8 vs 7.1Takedowns0.0 vs 0.9Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form0.1 vs -0.2
Greg HardyJuan Adams

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Greg Hardy(9 fights)Juan Adams(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +38.9|Blue -38.9
Recent Form
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score
Red -1.8|Blue +1.8
Grappler Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Layoff
Red +7.0|Blue -7.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Greg HardyTargetJuan Adams

By target zone

35
97% acc · 97%
Head
3
43% acc · 100%
1
50% acc · 3%
Body
0
0
Leg
0

By position

5
71% acc · 14%
Distance
3
43% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
31
100% acc · 86%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Greg Hardy rounds
0
even
0
Juan Adams rounds
Round 1Greg Hardy edged it
Sig. strikes36
Takedowns0
Control0:17
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
36 / 38
Sig Strikes
3 / 7
94%
Sig Str %
42%
36 / 38
Total Strikes
3 / 7
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 1
—
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:17
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Juan Adams3 / 73 / 70 / 10
1Greg Hardy36 / 3836 / 380 / 00

Greg Hardy

StanceOrthodox
Height77.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights9

Juan Adams

StanceOrthodox
Height77.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights4