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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Greg Hardy won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1419
Greg Hardy
Elo1372
Dmitrii Smoliakov

Greg HardyvsDmitrii SmoliakovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Hermansson · Saturday, April 27, 2019Sunrise, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Greg Hardy won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:15

Model Prediction: Greg Hardy wins(71.9%)

Actual result: Greg Hardy wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Greg Hardy at -290 American odds

+$34 profit

$134 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Greg Hardy enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Greg Hardy is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Dmitrii Smoliakov has lost 67% of fights by KO.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Dmitrii Smoliakov (52.9%).
  • Greg Hardy has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Greg Hardy
Red Corner
VS
Dmitrii Smoliakov
Blue Corner
-290
(74%)
Vegas Odds
+245
(29%)
1419
Elo
1372
38
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
6'5"
Height
6'2"
203.2 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Greg HardyL3 streak
oldest →
W
vs Yorgan De Castro · May 20
W
KOvs Maurice Greene · Oct 20
L
KOvs Marcin Tybura · Dec 20
L
KOvs Tai Tuivasa · Jul 21
L
KOvs Serghei Spivac · Mar 22
latest
Dmitrii SmoliakovL2 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Luis Henrique · Jul 16
L
KOvs Cyril Asker · Jan 17
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Greg HardyMetricDmitrii Smoliakov
4.79
Strikes / min
1.44
3.31
Strikes absorbed / min
3.81
55%
Strike defense
55%
0.20
TDs / 15 min
0.00
64%
Takedown defense
75%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.48Δ 3.85 — meaningful gap-2.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1486 vs 1472Strikes29.0 vs 9.5Takedowns0.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form-1.0 vs -1.0
Greg HardyDmitrii Smoliakov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Greg Hardy(9 fights)Dmitrii Smoliakov(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +47.1|Blue -47.1
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -734.0|Blue +734.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Greg HardyTargetDmitrii Smoliakov

By target zone

12
43% acc · 86%
Head
1
33% acc · 100%
2
100% acc · 14%
Body
0
0
Leg
0

By position

4
31% acc · 29%
Distance
1
33% acc · 100%
2
100% acc · 14%
Clinch
0
8
53% acc · 57%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Greg Hardy rounds
0
even
0
Dmitrii Smoliakov rounds
Round 1Greg Hardy edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:25
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
14 / 30
Sig Strikes
1 / 3
46%
Sig Str %
33%
17 / 33
Total Strikes
1 / 3
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 2
—
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:25
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Dmitrii Smoliakov1 / 31 / 30 / 20
1Greg Hardy14 / 3017 / 330 / 00

Greg Hardy

StanceOrthodox
Height77.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights9

Dmitrii Smoliakov

StanceSwitch
Height74.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights3