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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Allen Crowder won · DQ R2

Elo1419

Elo1492

Greg HardyvsAllen CrowderUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · Saturday, January 19, 2019Brooklyn, New York, USA

Official fight result

Allen Crowder won

DQ · Round 2 · 2:28

Style matchupGreg Hardy: StrikervsAllen Crowder: Submission grappler

Striker must keep this standing. Grappler wins big if it hits the floor.

Model Prediction: Allen Crowder wins(58.9%)

Actual result: Allen Crowder wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Allen Crowder at +360 American odds

+$360 profit

$460 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Greg Hardy enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Greg Hardy is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Allen Crowder has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Allen Crowder has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Greg Hardy has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Greg Hardy

Red Corner

Allen Crowder

Blue Corner

-450

(82%)

Vegas Odds

+360

(22%)

1419

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'5"

Height

6'3"

203.2 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Greg HardyL3 streak

oldest →

vs Yorgan De Castro · May 20

KOvs Maurice Greene · Oct 20

KOvs Marcin Tybura · Dec 20

KOvs Tai Tuivasa · Jul 21

KOvs Serghei Spivac · Mar 22

latest

Allen CrowderL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Justin Willis · Dec 17

KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Jun 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Greg HardyMetricAllen Crowder

4.79

Strikes / min

2.95

3.31

Strikes absorbed / min

2.95

55%

Strike defense

56%

0.20

TDs / 15 min

1.85

64%

Takedown defense

100%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.48Δ 1.48 — meaningful gap0.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Greg HardyAllen Crowder

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Greg Hardy(9 fights)Allen Crowder(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -72.2|Blue +72.2

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Grappler Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Greg HardyTargetAllen Crowder

By target zone

38% acc · 72%

Head

40% acc · 100%

100% acc · 17%

Body

100% acc · 10%

Leg

By position

33% acc · 59%

Distance

32% acc · 67%

86% acc · 21%

Clinch

50% acc · 8%

100% acc · 21%

Ground

100% acc · 25%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Greg Hardy rounds

even

Allen Crowder rounds

Round 1Greg Hardy edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control1:11

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:20Control

Round 2Greg Hardy edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:05

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 64

Sig Strikes

12 / 30

42.5%

Sig Str %

39%

35 / 70

Total Strikes

16 / 34

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 3

—

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

1:16

Ctrl Time

2:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Allen Crowder	7 / 16	11 / 20	1 / 2	1
1	Greg Hardy	21 / 39	27 / 45	0 / 0	0
2	Allen Crowder	5 / 14	5 / 14	0 / 1	0
2	Greg Hardy	8 / 25	8 / 25	0 / 0	0

Greg Hardy

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights9

Allen Crowder

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights3