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Lightweight
3 Rounds
TJ Grant won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1491
Elo1490
TJ Grant

Gray MaynardvsTJ GrantUFC Prediction Result

UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2 · Saturday, May 25, 2013Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

TJ Grant won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:07

Model Prediction: TJ Grant wins(52.7%)

Actual result: TJ Grant wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

TJ Grant at +125 American odds

+$125 profit

$225 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • TJ Grant enters on a 4-fight win streak.
  • Gray Maynard has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Gray Maynard has 45pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Gray Maynard
Red Corner
VS
TJ Grant
Blue Corner
-135
(57%)
Vegas Odds
+125
(44%)
1491
Elo
1490
47
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'10"
177.8 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gray Maynard
oldest →
L
vs Alexander Yakovlev · Apr 15
W
vs Fernando Bruno · Jul 16
L
vs Ryan Hall · Dec 16
W
vs Teruto Ishihara · Jul 17
L
KOvs Nik Lentz · Oct 18
latest
TJ GrantW4 streak
oldest →
L
vs Ricardo Almeida · Dec 10
W
SUBvs Shane Roller · Oct 11
W
vs Carlo Prater · May 12
W
vs Evan Dunham · Sep 12
W
KOvs Matt Wiman · Jan 13
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gray MaynardMetricTJ Grant
1.92
Strikes / min
3.95
2.64
Strikes absorbed / min
3.21
66%
Strike defense
56%
2.91
TDs / 15 min
1.63
81%
Takedown defense
36%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.72Δ 1.46 — meaningful gap+0.74

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1523 vs 1559Strikes30.7 vs 48.4Takedowns2.6 vs 1.4Sub Atts0.75 vs 0.50Form0.4 vs 0.9
Gray MaynardTJ Grant

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801488149515031510← oldermost recent →
Gray Maynard(10 fights)TJ Grant(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Recent Form
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red +218.0|Blue -218.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gray MaynardTargetTJ Grant

By target zone

13
48% acc · 100%
Head
22
46% acc · 85%
0
0% acc
Body
4
100% acc · 15%
0
Leg
0

By position

12
46% acc · 92%
Distance
10
42% acc · 38%
1
50% acc · 8%
Clinch
12
63% acc · 46%
0
Ground
4
44% acc · 15%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Gray Maynard rounds
0
even
1
TJ Grant rounds
Round 1TJ Grant edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
26Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:15Control
3Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
3
13 / 28
Sig Strikes
26 / 52
46%
Sig Str %
50%
13 / 28
Total Strikes
29 / 55
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:15

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1TJ Grant26 / 5229 / 550 / 00
1Gray Maynard13 / 2813 / 280 / 00

Gray Maynard

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights11

TJ Grant

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights8