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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Gray Maynard won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1371

Gray MaynardvsTeruto IshiharaUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Redemption Finale · Friday, July 7, 2017Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Gray Maynard won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Teruto Ishihara wins(50.1%)

Actual result: Gray Maynard wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Teruto Ishihara at -345 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Teruto Ishihara enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Teruto Ishihara is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Gray Maynard has lost 71% of fights by KO.
Gray Maynard has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Gray Maynard has 51pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Teruto Ishihara (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Gray Maynard

Red Corner

Teruto Ishihara

Blue Corner

+285

(26%)

Vegas Odds

-345

(78%)

1491

Elo

1371

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gray MaynardL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Ross Pearson · Aug 14

vs Alexander Yakovlev · Apr 15

vs Fernando Bruno · Jul 16

vs Ryan Hall · Dec 16

KOvs Nik Lentz · Oct 18

latest

Teruto IshiharaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Artem Lobov · Nov 16

vs Rolando Dy · Sep 17

vs Jose Quinonez · Feb 18

KOvs Petr Yan · Jun 18

SUBvs Kyung Ho Kang · Feb 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gray MaynardMetricTeruto Ishihara

1.92

Strikes / min

3.26

2.64

Strikes absorbed / min

3.63

66%

Strike defense

53%

2.91

TDs / 15 min

0.50

81%

Takedown defense

30%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.72evenly matched on net striking-0.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gray MaynardTeruto Ishihara

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gray Maynard(10 fights)Teruto Ishihara(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +120.7|Blue -120.7

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -2.2|Blue +2.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gray MaynardTargetTeruto Ishihara

By target zone

53% acc · 50%

Head

43% acc · 38%

89% acc · 50%

Body

83% acc · 63%

Leg

By position

33% acc · 6%

Distance

50% acc · 50%

75% acc · 19%

Clinch

75% acc · 38%

71% acc · 75%

Ground

100% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gray Maynard rounds

even

Teruto Ishihara rounds

Round 1Gray Maynard edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns5

Control3:46

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 2Gray Maynard edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns5

Control4:32

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 3Gray Maynard edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control4:39

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 24

Sig Strikes

8 / 13

69%

Sig Str %

58.7%

37 / 46

Total Strikes

14 / 19

11 / 11

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

12:57

Ctrl Time

0:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Teruto Ishihara	4 / 6	9 / 11	0 / 0	0
1	Gray Maynard	7 / 12	16 / 21	5 / 5	0
2	Teruto Ishihara	3 / 5	4 / 6	0 / 0	0
2	Gray Maynard	5 / 6	11 / 12	5 / 5	0
3	Teruto Ishihara	1 / 2	1 / 2	0 / 0	0
3	Gray Maynard	4 / 6	10 / 13	1 / 1	2

Gray Maynard

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11

Teruto Ishihara

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights8