Featherweight

3 Rounds

Ryan Hall won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1494

Gray MaynardvsRyan HallUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale · Saturday, December 3, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ryan Hall won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Gray Maynard wins(50.2%)

Actual result: Ryan Hall wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gray Maynard at +145 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gray Maynard has 81pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Ryan Hall (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Gray Maynard

Red Corner

Ryan Hall

Blue Corner

+145

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-165

(62%)

1491

Elo

1494

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gray Maynard

oldest →

KOvs Ross Pearson · Aug 14

vs Alexander Yakovlev · Apr 15

vs Fernando Bruno · Jul 16

vs Teruto Ishihara · Jul 17

KOvs Nik Lentz · Oct 18

latest

Ryan Hall

oldest →

vs Artem Lobov · Dec 15

SUBvs BJ Penn · Dec 18

vs Darren Elkins · Jul 19

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jul 21

vs Darrick Minner · Dec 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gray MaynardMetricRyan Hall

1.92

Strikes / min

2.38

2.64

Strikes absorbed / min

1.33

66%

Strike defense

65%

2.91

TDs / 15 min

0.22

81%

Takedown defense

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

2.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.72Δ 1.77 — meaningful gap+1.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gray MaynardRyan Hall

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gray Maynard(10 fights)Ryan Hall(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -3.2|Blue +3.2

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +1.8|Blue -1.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red -210.0|Blue +210.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gray MaynardTargetRyan Hall

By target zone

15% acc · 33%

Head

32% acc · 30%

63% acc · 42%

Body

36% acc · 41%

43% acc · 25%

Leg

65% acc · 28%

By position

25% acc · 75%

Distance

38% acc · 93%

Clinch

67% acc · 4%

50% acc · 25%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gray Maynard rounds

even

Ryan Hall rounds

Round 1Ryan Hall edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:58

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Ryan Hall edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:30

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Ryan Hall edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control1:29

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 42

Sig Strikes

46 / 117

28%

Sig Str %

39.7%

17 / 50

Total Strikes

53 / 124

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 2

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:57

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ryan Hall	12 / 36	13 / 37	0 / 1
1	Gray Maynard	5 / 16	5 / 16	0 / 0
2	Ryan Hall	17 / 48	18 / 49	0 / 1
2	Gray Maynard	3 / 13	3 / 13	0 / 0
3	Ryan Hall	17 / 33	22 / 38	0 / 0
3	Gray Maynard	4 / 13	9 / 21	0 / 0

Gray Maynard

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11

Ryan Hall

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights6