Lightweight

3 Rounds

Ross Pearson won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1491

Elo1372

Gray MaynardvsRoss PearsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint Preux · Saturday, August 16, 2014Bangor, Maine, USA

Official fight result

Ross Pearson won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:35

Style matchupGray Maynard: WrestlervsRoss Pearson: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Gray Maynard wins(57.9%)

Actual result: Ross Pearson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gray Maynard at +150 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Gray Maynard

Red Corner

Ross Pearson

Blue Corner

+150

(40%)

Vegas Odds

-160

(62%)

1491

Elo

1372

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gray Maynard

oldest →

vs Alexander Yakovlev · Apr 15

vs Fernando Bruno · Jul 16

vs Ryan Hall · Dec 16

vs Teruto Ishihara · Jul 17

KOvs Nik Lentz · Oct 18

latest

Ross PearsonL2 streak

oldest →

vs Stevie Ray · Nov 16

KOvs Dan Hooker · Jun 17

vs Mizuto Hirota · Feb 18

vs John Makdessi · Jul 18

KOvs Desmond Green · Mar 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gray MaynardMetricRoss Pearson

1.92

Strikes / min

3.68

2.64

Strikes absorbed / min

4.09

66%

Strike defense

62%

2.91

TDs / 15 min

0.74

81%

Takedown defense

75%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.72evenly matched on net striking-0.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gray MaynardRoss Pearson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gray Maynard(10 fights)Ross Pearson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +119.5|Blue -119.5

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +189.0|Blue -189.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gray MaynardTargetRoss Pearson

By target zone

23% acc · 60%

Head

44% acc · 77%

86% acc · 40%

Body

50% acc · 15%

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

27% acc · 80%

Distance

36% acc · 62%

100% acc · 20%

Clinch

86% acc · 23%

Ground

100% acc · 15%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gray Maynard rounds

even

Ross Pearson rounds

Round 1Gray Maynard edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns2

Control0:53

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Ross Pearson edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:19

Knockdowns0

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

15 / 47

Sig Strikes

26 / 55

28%

Sig Str %

56%

25 / 58

Total Strikes

35 / 64

2 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

33%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:12

Ctrl Time

0:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ross Pearson	11 / 37	19 / 45	0 / 0
1	Gray Maynard	13 / 38	23 / 49	2 / 3
2	Ross Pearson	15 / 18	16 / 19	0 / 0
2	Gray Maynard	2 / 9	2 / 9	0 / 1

Gray Maynard

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11

Ross Pearson

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights23