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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Nik Lentz won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1491

Elo1395

Gray MaynardvsNik LentzUFC Prediction Result

UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · Saturday, October 6, 2018Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Nik Lentz won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:19

Style matchupGray Maynard: WrestlervsNik Lentz: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Nik Lentz wins(61.1%)

Actual result: Nik Lentz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nik Lentz at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nik Lentz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Gray Maynard has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Gray Maynard has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Gray Maynard

Red Corner

Nik Lentz

Blue Corner

+190

(34%)

Vegas Odds

-230

(70%)

1491

Elo

1395

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gray Maynard

oldest →

KOvs Ross Pearson · Aug 14

vs Alexander Yakovlev · Apr 15

vs Fernando Bruno · Jul 16

vs Ryan Hall · Dec 16

vs Teruto Ishihara · Jul 17

latest

Nik LentzL3 streak

oldest →

vs David Teymur · Jun 18

vs Scott Holtzman · Feb 19

KOvs Charles Oliveira · May 19

vs Arnold Allen · Jan 20

vs Movsar Evloev · Jan 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gray MaynardMetricNik Lentz

1.92

Strikes / min

3.44

2.64

Strikes absorbed / min

3.25

66%

Strike defense

50%

2.91

TDs / 15 min

3.30

81%

Takedown defense

43%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.72evenly matched on net striking+0.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gray MaynardNik Lentz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gray Maynard(10 fights)Nik Lentz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +96.4|Blue -96.4

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +329.0|Blue -329.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gray MaynardTargetNik Lentz

By target zone

44% acc · 85%

Head

72% acc · 89%

100% acc · 15%

Body

100% acc · 7%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

48% acc · 85%

Distance

68% acc · 31%

50% acc · 15%

Clinch

75% acc · 16%

Ground

78% acc · 53%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gray Maynard rounds

even

Nik Lentz rounds

Round 1Nik Lentz edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:08

64Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:32Control

Round 2Nik Lentz edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 27

Sig Strikes

75 / 101

47.5%

Sig Str %

66%

13 / 27

Total Strikes

92 / 121

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 5

—

TD %

40%

Sub Att

Rev

0:08

Ctrl Time

3:34

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Nik Lentz	64 / 80	81 / 100	2 / 5	1
1	Gray Maynard	5 / 11	5 / 11	0 / 0	0
2	Nik Lentz	11 / 21	11 / 21	0 / 0	0
2	Gray Maynard	8 / 16	8 / 16	0 / 0	0

Gray Maynard

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11

Nik Lentz

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights22