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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Nate Diaz won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1491

Elo1496

Gray MaynardvsNate DiazUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rousey vs. Team Tate Finale · Saturday, November 30, 2013Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Nate Diaz won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:38

Style matchupGray Maynard: WrestlervsNate Diaz: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Nate Diaz wins(59.4%)

Actual result: Nate Diaz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nate Diaz at +110 American odds

+$110 profit

$210 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gray Maynard has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Gray Maynard has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Nate Diaz (53.5%).
Nate Diaz has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Gray Maynard

Red Corner

Nate Diaz

Blue Corner

-120

(55%)

Vegas Odds

+110

(48%)

1491

Elo

1496

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

6'0"

177.8 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gray Maynard

oldest →

vs Alexander Yakovlev · Apr 15

vs Fernando Bruno · Jul 16

vs Ryan Hall · Dec 16

vs Teruto Ishihara · Jul 17

KOvs Nik Lentz · Oct 18

latest

Nate Diaz

oldest →

vs Conor McGregor · Aug 16

vs Anthony Pettis · Aug 19

KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Nov 19

vs Leon Edwards · Jun 21

SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Sep 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gray MaynardMetricNate Diaz

1.92

Strikes / min

4.57

2.64

Strikes absorbed / min

3.77

66%

Strike defense

52%

2.91

TDs / 15 min

1.05

81%

Takedown defense

41%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.72Δ 1.52 — meaningful gap+0.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gray MaynardNate Diaz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gray Maynard(10 fights)Nate Diaz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -5.0|Blue +5.0

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -35.0|Blue +35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gray MaynardTargetNate Diaz

By target zone

23% acc · 60%

Head

57% acc · 85%

100% acc · 20%

Body

83% acc · 15%

100% acc · 20%

Leg

By position

25% acc · 60%

Distance

45% acc · 45%

100% acc · 20%

Clinch

82% acc · 55%

50% acc · 20%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gray Maynard rounds

even

Nate Diaz rounds

Round 1Nate Diaz edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control0:48

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 15

Sig Strikes

33 / 55

33%

Sig Str %

60%

6 / 16

Total Strikes

34 / 56

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 1

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:48

Ctrl Time

0:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Nate Diaz	33 / 55	34 / 56	0 / 1	0
1	Gray Maynard	5 / 15	6 / 16	1 / 2	0

Gray Maynard

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11

Nate Diaz

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights18