Featherweight

3 Rounds

Gray Maynard won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1357

Gray MaynardvsFernando BrunoUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joanna vs. Team Cláudia Finale · Friday, July 8, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Gray Maynard won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupGray Maynard: WrestlervsFernando Bruno: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Gray Maynard wins(75.1%)

Actual result: Gray Maynard wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gray Maynard at -165 American odds

+$61 profit

$161 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gray Maynard has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Gray Maynard has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Fernando Bruno (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Gray Maynard

Red Corner

Fernando Bruno

Blue Corner

-165

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1491

Elo

1357

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'6"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gray Maynard

oldest →

KOvs Ross Pearson · Aug 14

vs Alexander Yakovlev · Apr 15

vs Ryan Hall · Dec 16

vs Teruto Ishihara · Jul 17

KOvs Nik Lentz · Oct 18

latest

Fernando Bruno

oldest →

SUBvs Glaico Franca · Aug 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gray MaynardMetricFernando Bruno

1.92

Strikes / min

1.75

2.64

Strikes absorbed / min

1.78

66%

Strike defense

48%

2.91

TDs / 15 min

2.02

81%

Takedown defense

56%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.72evenly matched on net striking-0.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gray MaynardFernando Bruno

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gray Maynard(10 fights)Fernando Bruno(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +133.9|Blue -133.9

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +1.8|Blue -1.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red +119.0|Blue -119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gray MaynardTargetFernando Bruno

By target zone

31% acc · 60%

Head

31% acc · 81%

89% acc · 27%

Body

38% acc · 19%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

By position

32% acc · 43%

Distance

33% acc · 84%

47% acc · 30%

Clinch

28% acc · 16%

73% acc · 27%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gray Maynard rounds

even

Fernando Bruno rounds

Round 1Fernando Bruno edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control1:04

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:54Control

Round 2Gray Maynard edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns2

Control2:39

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:26Control

Round 3Gray Maynard edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control2:59

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:08Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 71

Sig Strikes

32 / 101

50.7%

Sig Str %

33.3%

42 / 85

Total Strikes

47 / 119

3 / 7

TDs

2 / 7

41.7%

TD %

27.7%

Sub Att

Rev

6:42

Ctrl Time

2:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Fernando Bruno	16 / 50	23 / 58	1 / 3	0
1	Gray Maynard	11 / 38	13 / 41	0 / 1	0
2	Fernando Bruno	8 / 33	14 / 41	1 / 2	0
2	Gray Maynard	8 / 20	11 / 24	2 / 2	1
3	Fernando Bruno	8 / 18	10 / 20	0 / 2	1
3	Gray Maynard	11 / 13	18 / 20	1 / 4	0

Gray Maynard

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11

Fernando Bruno

Stance—

Height66.0"

Reach—

Fights2