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Lightweight

5 Rounds

Gray Maynard won · S-DEC R5

Elo1491

Elo1490

Gray MaynardvsClay GuidaUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida · Friday, June 22, 2012Atlantic City, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Gray Maynard won

S-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupGray Maynard: WrestlervsClay Guida: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Gray Maynard wins(60.1%)

Actual result: Gray Maynard wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gray Maynard at -220 American odds

+$45 profit

$145 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Gray Maynard has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Gray Maynard

Red Corner

Clay Guida

Blue Corner

-220

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+200

(33%)

1491

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gray Maynard

oldest →

vs Alexander Yakovlev · Apr 15

vs Fernando Bruno · Jul 16

vs Ryan Hall · Dec 16

vs Teruto Ishihara · Jul 17

KOvs Nik Lentz · Oct 18

latest

Clay GuidaL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Claudio Puelles · Apr 22

vs Scott Holtzman · Dec 22

vs Rafa Garcia · Apr 23

vs Joaquim Silva · Dec 23

SUBvs Chase Hooper · Dec 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gray MaynardMetricClay Guida

1.92

Strikes / min

2.63

2.64

Strikes absorbed / min

3.00

66%

Strike defense

61%

2.91

TDs / 15 min

3.10

81%

Takedown defense

66%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.72evenly matched on net striking-0.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gray MaynardClay Guida

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gray Maynard(10 fights)Clay Guida(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gray MaynardTargetClay Guida

By target zone

17% acc · 71%

Head

13% acc · 89%

64% acc · 14%

Body

20% acc · 2%

88% acc · 14%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

16% acc · 67%

Distance

14% acc · 100%

91% acc · 20%

Clinch

86% acc · 12%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gray Maynard rounds

even

Clay Guida rounds

Round 1Clay Guida edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Clay Guida edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Gray Maynard edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:03

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Even round

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:05

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:47Control

Round 5Gray Maynard edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control1:02

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

49 / 225

Sig Strikes

45 / 321

22.8%

Sig Str %

13.8%

52 / 229

Total Strikes

49 / 327

1 / 9

TDs

0 / 3

8.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:10

Ctrl Time

0:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Clay Guida	10 / 59	10 / 59	0 / 0	0
1	Gray Maynard	5 / 51	5 / 51	0 / 0	0
2	Clay Guida	10 / 87	10 / 87	0 / 0	0
2	Gray Maynard	7 / 41	7 / 41	0 / 0	0
3	Clay Guida	4 / 63	4 / 63	0 / 2	0
3	Gray Maynard	9 / 58	9 / 58	0 / 3	0
4	Gray Maynard	11 / 32	14 / 36	0 / 2	1
4	Clay Guida	10 / 54	14 / 60	0 / 1	0
5	Clay Guida	11 / 58	11 / 58	0 / 0	0
5	Gray Maynard	17 / 43	17 / 43	1 / 4	0

Gray Maynard

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11

Clay Guida

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights27