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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Alexander Yakovlev won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1391

Gray MaynardvsAlexander YakovlevUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas · Saturday, April 4, 2015Fairfax, Virginia, USA

Official fight result

Alexander Yakovlev won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Alexander Yakovlev wins(53.3%)

Actual result: Alexander Yakovlev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexander Yakovlev at -140 American odds

+$71 profit

$171 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Alexander Yakovlev (53.5%).
Alexander Yakovlev has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Gray Maynard

Red Corner

Alexander Yakovlev

Blue Corner

+120

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-140

(58%)

1491

Elo

1391

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

6'3"

177.8 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gray Maynard

oldest →

KOvs Ross Pearson · Aug 14

vs Fernando Bruno · Jul 16

vs Ryan Hall · Dec 16

vs Teruto Ishihara · Jul 17

KOvs Nik Lentz · Oct 18

latest

Alexander YakovlevL2 streak

oldest →

vs Kamaru Usman · Jul 16

SUBvs Zak Cummings · Nov 16

SUBvs Alex Da Silva · Apr 19

vs Roosevelt Roberts · Nov 19

SUBvs Joel Alvarez · Oct 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gray MaynardMetricAlexander Yakovlev

1.92

Strikes / min

1.74

2.64

Strikes absorbed / min

2.41

66%

Strike defense

58%

2.91

TDs / 15 min

1.66

81%

Takedown defense

72%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.72evenly matched on net striking-0.67

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gray MaynardAlexander Yakovlev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gray Maynard(10 fights)Alexander Yakovlev(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +100.7|Blue -100.7

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +49.0|Blue -49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gray MaynardTargetAlexander Yakovlev

By target zone

39% acc · 76%

Head

36% acc · 68%

25% acc · 14%

Body

82% acc · 29%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

50% acc · 3%

By position

38% acc · 86%

Distance

31% acc · 48%

43% acc · 14%

Clinch

67% acc · 26%

Ground

73% acc · 26%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gray Maynard rounds

even

Alexander Yakovlev rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:52

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:30Control

Round 2Alexander Yakovlev edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control1:06

Knockdowns0

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:18Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Alexander Yakovlev edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control0:56

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:05Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 55

Sig Strikes

31 / 72

42.3%

Sig Str %

40.3%

27 / 61

Total Strikes

46 / 92

2 / 17

TDs

2 / 5

10%

TD %

41.5%

Sub Att

Rev

2:54

Ctrl Time

2:53

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alexander Yakovlev	5 / 19	5 / 19	1 / 3
1	Gray Maynard	8 / 27	10 / 29	0 / 4
2	Alexander Yakovlev	18 / 35	21 / 41	0 / 0
2	Gray Maynard	7 / 18	8 / 19	1 / 7
3	Alexander Yakovlev	8 / 18	20 / 32	1 / 2
3	Gray Maynard	6 / 10	9 / 13	1 / 6

Gray Maynard

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11

Alexander Yakovlev

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights9