← All fights/Event page

Catch Weight

3 Rounds

Grant Dawson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1527

Elo1386

Grant DawsonvsNad NarimaniUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2 · Saturday, July 18, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Grant Dawson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupGrant Dawson: WrestlervsNad Narimani: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Grant Dawson wins(83.5%)

Actual result: Grant Dawson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Grant Dawson at -250 American odds

+$40 profit

$140 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nad Narimani has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Grant Dawson (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Grant Dawson

Red Corner

Nad Narimani

Blue Corner

-250

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+195

(34%)

1527

Elo

1386

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'8"

182.88 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Grant Dawson

oldest →

vs Joe Solecki · Jun 24

KOvs Rafa Garcia · Oct 24

vs Diego Ferreira · Jan 25

KOvs Manuel Torres · Dec 25

SUBvs Mateusz Rebecki · May 26

latest

Nad Narimani

oldest →

vs Khalid Taha · Jul 18

vs Anderson Dos Santos · Nov 18

KOvs Mike Grundy · Mar 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Grant DawsonMetricNad Narimani

3.14

Strikes / min

3.33

2.14

Strikes absorbed / min

3.00

44%

Strike defense

58%

3.58

TDs / 15 min

1.92

66%

Takedown defense

70%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.00evenly matched on net striking+0.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Grant DawsonNad Narimani

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Grant Dawson(10 fights)Nad Narimani(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +140.8|Blue -140.8

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -350.0|Blue +350.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Grant DawsonTargetNad Narimani

By target zone

34% acc · 47%

Head

29% acc · 55%

36% acc · 9%

Body

80% acc · 39%

85% acc · 43%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

44% acc · 91%

Distance

38% acc · 90%

Clinch

100% acc · 6%

71% acc · 9%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Grant Dawson rounds

even

Nad Narimani rounds

Round 1Grant Dawson edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control3:55

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 2Grant Dawson edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control4:03

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Grant Dawson edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:13

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

53 / 115

Sig Strikes

31 / 76

53.7%

Sig Str %

41%

136 / 218

Total Strikes

57 / 105

2 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

8:11

Ctrl Time

0:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Nad Narimani	5 / 10	21 / 26	0 / 0	0
1	Grant Dawson	14 / 17	46 / 53	1 / 2	0
2	Nad Narimani	2 / 6	12 / 19	0 / 0	0
2	Grant Dawson	6 / 15	57 / 82	1 / 1	1
3	Nad Narimani	24 / 60	24 / 60	0 / 0	0
3	Grant Dawson	33 / 83	33 / 83	0 / 3	0

Grant Dawson

StanceSwitch

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights14

Nad Narimani

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4