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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Grant Dawson won · Submission R3
Elo1527
Grant Dawson
Elo1473
Mateusz Rebecki editorial illustration

Grant DawsonvsMateusz RebeckiUFC Prediction Result

UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · Saturday, May 9, 2026Newark, USA

Official fight result

Grant Dawson won

Submission · Round 3 · 4:42

Style matchupGrant Dawson: WrestlervsMateusz Rebecki: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Grant Dawson wins(71.3%)

Actual result: Grant Dawson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Mateusz Rebecki has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Grant Dawson has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Grant Dawson
Red Corner
VS
Mateusz Rebecki
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
1527
Elo
1473
32
Age
33
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
5'10"
Height
5'7"
182.88 cm
Reach
167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Grant Dawson
oldest →
L
KOvs King Green · Oct 23
W
vs Joe Solecki · Jun 24
W
KOvs Rafa Garcia · Oct 24
W
vs Diego Ferreira · Jan 25
L
KOvs Manuel Torres · Dec 25
latest
Mateusz RebeckiL2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Roosevelt Roberts · Nov 23
L
KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 24
W
vs Myktybek Orolbai · Oct 24
L
vs Chris Duncan · Aug 25
L
vs Ludovit Klein · Oct 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Grant DawsonMetricMateusz Rebecki
3.14
Strikes / min
4.79
2.14
Strikes absorbed / min
4.36
44%
Strike defense
54%
3.58
TDs / 15 min
3.05
66%
Takedown defense
53%
1.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.00evenly matched on net striking+0.43
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601480150015201540← oldermost recent →
Grant Dawson(10 fights)Mateusz Rebecki(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +54.1|Blue -54.1
Recent Form
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Striker Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -42.0|Blue +42.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Grant Dawson

StanceSwitch
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights14

Mateusz Rebecki

StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights9