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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Grant Dawson won · SUB R3

Elo1527

Elo1486

Grant DawsonvsMark MadsenUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos · Saturday, November 5, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Grant Dawson won

SUB · Round 3 · 2:05

Style matchupGrant Dawson: WrestlervsMark Madsen: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Grant Dawson wins(73.0%)

Actual result: Grant Dawson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Grant Dawson at -200 American odds

+$50 profit

$150 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Grant Dawson threatens submissions; Mark Madsen has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Grant Dawson (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Grant Dawson

Red Corner

Mark Madsen

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1527

Elo

1486

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'8"

182.88 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Grant Dawson

oldest →

vs Joe Solecki · Jun 24

KOvs Rafa Garcia · Oct 24

vs Diego Ferreira · Jan 25

KOvs Manuel Torres · Dec 25

SUBvs Mateusz Rebecki · May 26

latest

Mark Madsen

oldest →

KOvs Danilo Belluardo · Sep 19

vs Austin Hubbard · Mar 20

vs Clay Guida · Aug 21

vs Vinc Pichel · Apr 22

KOvs Jared Gordon · Nov 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Grant DawsonMetricMark Madsen

3.14

Strikes / min

3.56

2.14

Strikes absorbed / min

3.97

44%

Strike defense

52%

3.58

TDs / 15 min

2.86

66%

Takedown defense

62%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.00Δ 1.41 — meaningful gap-0.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Grant DawsonMark Madsen

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Grant Dawson(10 fights)Mark Madsen(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +41.4|Blue -41.4

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Grant DawsonTargetMark Madsen

By target zone

55% acc · 52%

Head

42% acc · 73%

71% acc · 15%

Body

100% acc · 20%

100% acc · 33%

Leg

100% acc · 7%

By position

68% acc · 76%

Distance

48% acc · 73%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

64% acc · 21%

Ground

57% acc · 27%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Grant Dawson rounds

even

Mark Madsen rounds

Round 1Grant Dawson edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns1

Control4:22

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:24Control

Round 2Grant Dawson edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control4:22

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Grant Dawson edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:47

Knockdowns1

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

33 / 49

Sig Strikes

15 / 30

74%

Sig Str %

51%

73 / 96

Total Strikes

50 / 70

2 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

37.5%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

9:31

Ctrl Time

0:24

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mark Madsen	5 / 10	18 / 28	0 / 0	0
1	Grant Dawson	1 / 1	27 / 31	1 / 2	0
2	Mark Madsen	4 / 7	26 / 29	0 / 0	0
2	Grant Dawson	6 / 12	13 / 21	1 / 4	0
3	Mark Madsen	6 / 13	6 / 13	0 / 0	0
3	Grant Dawson	26 / 36	33 / 44	0 / 0	2

Grant Dawson

StanceSwitch

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights14

Mark Madsen

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights6